Predicting the Winner of the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in 2026

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards (Oscars) are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The ceremony is traditionally held in Los Angeles, California, most often at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

The 2026 Academy Awards (98th Academy Awards) are expected to take place in early March 2026, recognizing films released during the 2025 calendar year. Eligibility, nominations, and final voting follow Academy-established rules and timelines.

Recent Winners of the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress

The Best Supporting Actress category has historically recognized performances that play a defining role in a film’s narrative, often within ensemble casts or prestige dramas.

The last five Best Supporting Actress winners are:

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers (2024)
• Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere All at Once (2023)
• Ariana DeBose — West Side Story (2022)
• Youn Yuh-jung — Minari (2021)
• Laura Dern — Marriage Story (2020)

These wins span studio releases, independent films, and internationally recognized productions.

Predicting the Winner of the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress in 2026: Current Market Snapshot

Official nominees for Best Supporting Actress in 2026 have not yet been announced. Current prediction markets reflect expectations based on publicly known projects, prior awards history, and early industry attention.

The probabilities below represent implied chances derived from current market pricing.

Current Market-Implied Probabilities

Potential Films Associated With Best Supporting Actress Contenders

The films listed below are projects publicly associated with each actress that could plausibly factor into awards consideration for the 2026 ceremony. Inclusion does not imply nomination, eligibility, or Academy recognition.

• Amy Madigan — Reported supporting role in an upcoming independent drama (TBA)
• Teyana Taylor — A Thousand and One–follow-up projects and announced dramatic roles
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Scandinavian feature projects with international festival circulation
• Ariana Grande — Wicked
• Gwyneth Paltrow — Marty Supreme
• Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners
• Chase Infiniti — Independent feature project (TBA)
• Glenn Close — The Summer Book
• Laura Dern — Lonely Planet
• Mari Yamamoto — Japanese feature project (TBA)
• Jennifer Lopez — Unstoppable
• Ayo Edebiri — Supporting roles in upcoming studio and independent releases
• Emily Blunt — The Fall Guy; additional announced projects
• Rebecca Ferguson — Dune: Part Two
• Elle Fanning — A Complete Unknown

Final eligibility depends on release dates, qualifying theatrical runs, campaign positioning, and Academy rules.

How Prediction Markets Reflect Best Supporting Actress Expectations

Prediction markets aggregate participant expectations into implied probabilities, which adjust as new information becomes available. For Best Supporting Actress, market movement often reflects:

• Visibility within ensemble casts
• Critical reception at major festivals
• Strength of the overall film campaign
• Industry awards and guild nominations

Market prices represent current expectations, not confirmed outcomes or official Academy positions.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the official Academy Award winner for Best Supporting Actress, as announced during the Oscar ceremony. If the result is delayed or disputed, resolution follows the Academy’s final publicly recognized decision.

Related Oscar Markets

• Predicting the Winner of Best Supporting Actor in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Actress in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Picture in 2026

Important Information

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Predictions markets are volatile and carry risk. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions. It is essential to do research and due diligence to make the best possible judgment, as any purchases shall be your sole responsibility.

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Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.