Predicting the Winner of the Oscar for Best Picture in 2026

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards (Oscars) are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The ceremony traditionally takes place in Los Angeles, California, most often at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

The 2026 Academy Awards (98th Academy Awards) are expected to be held in early March 2026, recognizing films released during the 2025 calendar year. Eligibility, nominations, and final voting follow Academy rules and timelines.

Recent Winners of the Oscar for Best Picture

The Best Picture award recognizes the film deemed most outstanding by the Academy, often reflecting a combination of critical acclaim, industry support, and sustained awards-season momentum.

The last five Best Picture winners are:

• Oppenheimer (2024)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (2023)
• CODA (2022)
• Nomadland (2021)
• Parasite (2020)

These films span a wide range of genres and production scales, including historical epics, independent dramas, and internationally produced features.

Predicting the Winner of the Oscar for Best Picture in 2026: Current Market Snapshot

Official nominees for Best Picture in 2026 have not yet been announced. Current prediction markets reflect expectations based on publicly announced projects, early industry attention, and historical Academy voting patterns.

The probabilities below represent implied chances derived from current market pricing.

Current Market-Implied Probabilities

Implied probabilities do not total 100%. This is typical of prediction markets due to pricing mechanics, uncertainty, and inactive outcomes.

Films Commonly Associated With Best Picture Consideration

The following films are projects currently associated with awards-season discussion and could plausibly factor into Best Picture consideration for the 2026 ceremony. Inclusion does not imply nomination, eligibility, or Academy recognition.

• One Battle After Another — Director-driven prestige production
• Marty Supreme — Character-focused drama with ensemble elements
• Sinners — Large-scale genre film with crossover awards attention
• Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere — Music-centered biographical drama
• Hamnet — Literary adaptation with historical setting
• Bugonia — Science-fiction feature with stylized production design
• No Other Choice — International production with festival circulation
• Frankenstein — Gothic adaptation from a high-profile director
• Rental Family — Independent drama
• A House of Dynamite — Political or social issue–driven feature
• It Was Just an Accident — International or arthouse production
• Jay Kelly — Character-driven independent film
• Avatar: Fire and Ash — Large-scale franchise installment
• Sentimental Value — European prestige drama
• Wicked: For Good — Studio musical release

Final eligibility depends on release dates, qualifying theatrical runs, campaign positioning, and Academy rules.

How Prediction Markets Reflect Best Picture Expectations

Prediction markets aggregate participant expectations into implied probabilities, which change as new information becomes available. For Best Picture, market movement often reflects:

• Festival premieres and early critical response
• Industry awards and guild recognition
• Strength and breadth of a film’s overall campaign
• Cross-category support (directing, acting, technical nominations)

Market prices reflect current expectations, not confirmed outcomes or official Academy decisions.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the official Academy Award winner for Best Picture, as announced during the Oscar ceremony. If the outcome is delayed or disputed, resolution follows the Academy’s final publicly recognized decision.

Related Oscar Markets

• Predicting the Winner of Best Director in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Actor in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Actress in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Cinematography in 2026

Important Information

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Predictions markets are volatile and carry risk. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions. It is essential to do research and due diligence to make the best possible judgment, as any purchases shall be your sole responsibility.

Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.

Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.