Predicting the Oscars: Best Actor Winner 2026

The Academy Award for Best Actor is presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to recognize an outstanding leading performance in a motion picture released during the eligibility year.

At the 96th Academy Awards (March 2024), Cillian Murphy won Best Actor for his performance as J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer. This marked Murphy’s first Academy Award win after previous industry recognition for film and television work.

As of now, official nominees for the next Academy Awards have not been announced. The individuals below are included for informational purposes only, based on market activity and publicly released, Academy-eligible films.

Current Market-Implied Chances to Win Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet — 49%

• Leonardo DiCaprio — 28%

• Wagner Moura — 18%

• Ethan Hawke — 15%

• Daniel Day-Lewis — 5%

• Michael B. Jordan — 5%

• Paul Mescal — 4%

• Dwayne Johnson — 3%

• Colin Farrell — 3%

• George Clooney — 3%

• Jeremy Allen White — 3%

• Hugh Jackman — 3%

• Channing Tatum — 3%

• Brendan Fraser — 3%

• Jesse Plemons — 3%

Percentages reflect market activity at a single point in time.

Actor Profiles and Eligible Films

Timothée Chalamet received a previous Academy Award nomination for Best Actor for Call Me by Your Name (2017). His recent Academy-eligible leading roles include Wonka (2023), in which he portrayed Willy Wonka, and Dune: Part Two (2024).

Leonardo DiCaprio won the Academy Award for Best Actor for The Revenant (2015) and has received multiple additional nominations. His most recent Academy-eligible leading performance appeared in Killers of the Flower Moon (2023), directed by Martin Scorsese.

Wagner Moura is a Brazilian actor whose international film work includes Academy-eligible releases such as Civil War (2024), in which he appeared in a prominent supporting role, following earlier recognition for Elite Squad and Narcos.

Ethan Hawke has received four Academy Award nominations across acting and writing categories. His recent Academy-eligible film appearances include Leave the World Behind (2023) and Wildcat (2023).

Daniel Day-Lewis holds the record for the most Best Actor wins (three). He has not appeared in any new Academy-eligible films since Phantom Thread (2017), following his announced retirement from acting.

Michael B. Jordan has appeared in Academy-eligible leading roles including Creed III (2023), which he also directed, and earlier films such as Fruitvale Station.

Paul Mescal received an Academy Award nomination for Best Actor for Aftersun (2022). His more recent Academy-eligible film work includes All of Us Strangers (2023) and Gladiator II (2024).

Dwayne Johnson has appeared in multiple Academy-eligible films, including Red One (2024) and prior releases such as Black Adam (2022).

Colin Farrell received a Best Actor nomination for The Banshees of Inisherin (2022). His recent Academy-eligible appearances include Thirteen Lives (2022) and The Batman (2022).

George Clooney has won two Academy Awards and received multiple Best Actor nominations. His recent Academy-eligible film roles include The Boys in the Boat (2023).

Jeremy Allen White is primarily known for television work but has appeared in Academy-eligible films such as The Iron Claw (2023).

Hugh Jackman received an Academy Award nomination for Les Misérables (2012). His recent Academy-eligible film appearances include Deadpool & Wolverine (2024).

Channing Tatum has appeared in Academy-eligible films including Blink Twice (2024) and earlier dramatic roles such as Foxcatcher (2014).

Brendan Fraser won the Academy Award for Best Actor for The Whale (2022). His recent Academy-eligible appearances include Killers of the Flower Moon (2023).

Jesse Plemons received an Academy Award nomination for Best Supporting Actor for The Power of the Dog (2021). His recent Academy-eligible film roles include Killers of the Flower Moon (2023) and Civil War (2024).

Key Context

Inclusion in prediction-style markets does not indicate official Academy recognition. Final nominees for the upcoming Academy Awards will be announced by AMPAS at a later date.

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Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.