Predicting the 2025 College Football Bowl Season

Bowl season is here, and College Football is giving a select group of teams, mostly with winning records this season, one more opportunity to showcase their abilities. Some teams will have their full cast of players, while others will lose key members to the transfer portal, the draft, and other outside factors. The recipe for success when predicting these games is to understand who will be missing from these matchups and who will be giving the full effort to claim victory.

Washington State vs Utah State Bowl Game 

Date: December 22, 2025 

Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

Our first matchup is between Washington State from the Pacific Coast Conference and Utah State from the Mountain West.

Washington State finished in first place in the Pacific Coast Conference conference, but there are only two teams in the conference due to realignment. They finished with a 6-6 record, but played in some close matchups against ranked teams like Virginia, JMU, and Ole Miss. Washington State is 6-11 all-time in bowl games, and has participated in the bowl season in four of the last five seasons. They are seeking their first bowl win since 2018. Washington State should have a pretty full roster for this game losing only four players who opted out by entering the transfer portal, with the biggest loss being Anthony Palano, their starting linebacker. 

Utah State finds itself in a bowl game with a 6-6 record while going 4-4 in conference play. They are also playing in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five seasons and have a record of 6-11 in bowl season. They’ve participated in the specific bowl in Boise, Idaho, more than any other team since the game began in 1997, and most recently in 2023, where they lost to Georgia State 45-22. Utah State will have its full roster available for the game.

We’re predicting a close matchup between these two teams, with our predictive markets giving Utah State a 55% chance to win the game. We also expect a 63% chance of there being over 46.5 points scored in the matchup.

Toledo vs Louisville Bowl Game 

Date: December 23, 2025
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida

Toledo from the Mid-America Conference conference will match up against Louisville from the Atlantic Coast Conference in our next bowl game.

Toledo earned its bowl invitation by going 8-4 this regular season with a 6-2 conference record. They finished third in the Mid-America Conference, just narrowly missing the conference championship game due to tiebreakers with Ohio. This is their 23rd bowl game appearance with a 12-10 record with their most recent game being last season’s 48-46 victory over Pittsburgh.  Player-wise, Toledo will only be missing their Edge Rusher Malachi Davis, but they will be playing without their Head Coach Jason Candle, who was hired away by UConn and their Defensive Coordinator Vince Kehres, who was hired away by Syracuse. 

Louisville was ranked for a few weeks during the regular season, but ends the year 8-4 with a 4-4 Atlantic Coast Conference conference record. They had two key victories over college football playoff participants JMU and Miami. This is Louisville’s 28th bowl game in its school history with a record of 12-13-1. Louisville edged out a victory over Washington last season in their bowl game 35-34. Louisville wasn’t hit too hard with opt-outs either, missing only two players on the defensive line.

Our predictive markets make Louisville a favorite with a 72% chance to win this game. However, we also give Toledo a 57% chance to cover a +7.5 point spread. 

Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Bowl Game

Date: December 23, 2025

Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Our next matchup features Western Kentucky from Conference USA (CUSA) and Southern Miss from the Sun Belt. 

Western Kentucky earned its bowl eligibility by earning an 8-4 record this season. They finished third in CUSA with a 6-2 record. This will be their 13th bowl appearance in school history with a winning record of 7-4. Western Kentucky will be attempting to get back into the win column after losing last season’s bowl game to JMU 27-17. For this game, they are losing CB Dylan Flowers and RB La’Vell Wright to the transfer portal. 

Southern Miss put together a promising season in Sun Belt play, ending the year with a 7-5 overall record and 5-2 conference record. This will be their 24th postseason appearance, with a 12-11 record in those games. This is their first appearance in a bowl game in the last three years, with their most recent matchup being a 38-24 victory over Rice in 2022. Southern Miss will not lose any players to opt-outs for this game. 

Our predictive markets give Western Kentucky the edge in this matchup, with a 67% chance to win the game. Our markets also give Western Kentucky a 58% chance to cover a -3.5 point spread in this matchup. 

UNLV vs Ohio Bowl Game 

Date: December 23, 2025

Location: Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, Texas

The last matchup of the day on December 23rd features UNLV, the runner-up in the Mountain West Conference and Ohio of the Mid-America Conference.

UNLV was a representative in the Mountain West Conference championship game with a 10-3 overall record and 6-2 conference record, but they lost the championship game to Boise State 38-21, their second loss to Boise State this season. This is just their seventh appearance in a bowl game, but they have garnered a 4-2 record in those games. However, this is the third season in a row they’ve qualified for a bowl game, where they most recently best California 24-13. They will not be losing any players to opt-outs for this game. 

Ohio missed out on playing in their conference championship game by way of tiebreakers to Miami Ohio, despite have an 8-4 overall record and 6-2 conference record. This will be their 17th bowl game in school history, with an even 8-8 record in those games. They’ve been a regular feature in the postseason since 2022 and won last season’s matchup against Jacksonville State 30-27. They will also not be losing any players to opt-outs for this game. 

The Crypto.com predictive markets give UNLV a 73% chance to win this game. We are also predicting a higher scoring matchup, with 58% chance to go over 62.5 points. 

California vs Hawaii Bowl Game

Date: December 24, 2025

Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii

On Christmas Eve, California, from the Atlantic Coast Conference, will travel to Hawaii, from the Mountain West.

California clinched a spot in bowl season by going 7-5 in the regular season, but struggled in division play with a 4-4 record.  This will be their 27th bowl game in program history, and has compiled a 12-13-1 record in those games. This is their third straight season playing in a bowl game, where they most recently lost to UNLV 24-13. California does not have any players opting out for this matchup.

Despite finishing 8-4 overall this season and 5-3 in the conference, Hawaii finished in sixth place in a deep Mountain West conference. Hawaii hasn’t appeared in a bowl game since the 2020 season, where they beat Houston 28-14. They’ve participated in 15 bowl games with an 8-6 record all-time. Hawaii will be without its WR Jackson Harris for this game as he has entered the transfer portal.

We’re predicting a close matchup between these two teams, with our predictive markets giving Utah State a 55% chance to win the game. We also expect a 63% chance of there being over 46.5 points scored in the matchup.

Our prediction markets expect a close matchup between these teams, giving Hawaii a slight edge with a 53% chance to win the game.

Central Michigan vs Northwestern Bowl Game

Date: December 26, 2025

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

The Mid-American Conference’s Central Michigan will face off against the Big Ten’s Northwestern in our next matchup. 

Central Michigan was playing for a spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship game in the final week of the season, but ultimately fell short in a loss to Toledo. They are left with a 7-5 overall record, a 5-3 conference record, and a bowl game to show for it. This is their first bowl game since 2021 and their 14th bowl game in program history. Central Michigan has only four bowl wins all-time, but they won their most recent matchup against Washington State 24-21.

The peak of Northwestern’s season was their shocking upset over Penn State in Week 7. They were a frisky team down the stretch as well, nearly upsetting 18th-ranked Michigan as well. Now, they have a 6-6 overall record and a 4-5 conference record as they face off with Central Michigan in their program’s 17th bowl game all-time. Northwestern has a 7-10 record in bowl games, but hasn’t lost in the five bowl games they’ve played since 2016. They will not have any players opting out of this game.

Our predictive markets lean heavily toward Northwestern in this matchup, with an 81% chance to win the game. They also have a 52% chance to cover a -10.5 point spread. 

New Mexico vs Minnesota Bowl Game

Date: December 26, 2025

Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

The Mountain West’s New Mexico will face the Big Ten’s Minnesota in our next bowl game. 

New Mexico was knocking on the door of the Mountain West title game, but ultimately lost the tiebreaker to Boise State and UNLV for a chance to play for a championship. They still finished with a 9-3 record and went 6-2 in conference play. This is their first bowl game in nearly a decade, last making their appearance in a 23-20 victory over UTSA in 2016. New Mexico is 4-7-1 all-time in bowl games and will not have any opt-outs for this game. 

Minnesota had a promising 9-4 record this season, but tripped up when they faced a team that was a step up in class. They struggled mightily with ranked opponents like Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon, but still maintained a 5-0 record at home this season. They’re set up for their 25th bowl game in program history, where they’ve gone 13-12 all-time. Minnesota will be playing this game without its RB Fame Ijeboi, who left the team for the transfer portal.  

Our predictive markets expect a close matchup between New Mexico and Minnesota, but give Minnesota a 56% chance to win the game. However, they also give New Mexico a 60% chance to cover a +3.5 point spread. 

Florida International vs UTSA Bowl Game 

Date: December 26, 2025

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas

The final game on December 26th will feature Florida International from the Conference USA against UTSA from the American Athletic Conference. 

Florida International finished tied for fourth place in Conference USA with a 7-5 overall record and a 5-3 conference record. They’ve only appeared in five bowl games in program history, and they’re making their first appearance since 2019. Florida International has a 2-3 record in those games, losing their most recent matchup to Arkansas State in 2019. They will be without two cornerbacks, Mister Clark and Victor Evans III, who have opted out of this game.  

UTSA finished the season tied for seventh place in the American Athletic Conference. They had an even 6-6 record while going 4-4 in conference play. UTSA has only appeared in six bowl games all-time, but have played in the postseason every year since 2020. They won their bowl game last season convincingly, beating Coastal Carolina 44-15. Three players will be opting out of this game for UTSA to go to the transfer portal, DL Chidera Otutu, Edge Daemian Wimberly, and DB KK Meier.

Our predictive markets give the edge to UTSA in this matchup, giving them a 72% chance to win the game. They also predict that there’s a 58% chance that more than 57.5 total points will be scored in this game.

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