Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [October 2023]

US Federal Reserve holds steady on interest rates. BTC starts 4Q strong, outperforming other asset classes.

Nov 06, 2023
Alpha Navigator

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Executive Summary

  • Asset classes were mixed in October. BTC outperformed significantly and notched another positive October, living up to the “Uptober” moniker.
[] Alpha Navigator Uptober
  • The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at its 1 Nov meeting as policymakers debated whether financial conditions were already tight enough to control inflation or if the economy needed more restraint. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the situation remained unclear, with officials willing to raise rates if progress on inflation stalls but wary of slowing the economy too much. In the press conference, Powell said given the uncertainties, it was best now to keep rates at 5.25-5.50% and evaluate upcoming economic data before the next meeting in December.
  • BTC’s 1-month correlation with gold is strongly positive, while negative with equities.
[] Alpha Navigator BTC Price Correlation
  • BTC options implied volatilities (vols) increased in October.
[] Alpha Navigator BTC Options ATM Implied Volatility
  • Market-Neutral Pair Trader hunts for strongly correlated tokens and potential market-neutral pair trades.
[] Alpha Navigator Market Neutral Pair Trader
  • For the AVAX vs. ATOM pair, the price ratio (AVAX price divided by ATOM price) increased during the past month approaching the 2-standard deviation (SD) ceiling.
[] Alpha Navigator AVAX ATOM Price Ratio
  • Our style-factor screens track momentum, value, growth, and risk for the Layer-1 and Layer-2, DeFi, Gaming, and NFT categories. Below is the screen for selected top crypto tokens by market cap in the Layer-1 and Layer-2 category. Token prices all rose in October. SOL shows notable positive price momentum.
[] Alpha Navigator Style-Factor Screens
  • Our events section shows recent and upcoming events for selected tokens, as important macroeconomic events.
[] Alpha Navigator Events Section

Read the full Alpha Navigator report: Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [October 2023]


Andrew Ho (Senior Research Analyst)

Research & Insights Team

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