Predicting the Winner of the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor in 2026

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards (Oscars) are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) and are traditionally held in Los Angeles, California, most often at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

The 2026 Academy Awards (98th Academy Awards) are expected to take place in early March 2026, honoring films released during the 2025 calendar year. Eligibility, nominations, and voting follow Academy-established rules and timelines.

Recent Winners of the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor

The Best Supporting Actor category has historically recognized performances that play a significant narrative or thematic role, often in ensemble-driven or critically acclaimed films.

The last five Best Supporting Actor winners are:

• Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer (2024)
• Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All at Once (2023)
• Troy Kotsur — CODA (2022)
• Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black Messiah (2021)
• Brad Pitt — Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2020)

These performances span a range of genres, from large-scale studio productions to independent and ensemble-focused films.

Predicting the Winner of the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor in 2026: Current Market Snapshot

Official nominees for Best Supporting Actor in 2026 have not yet been announced. Current prediction markets reflect expectations based on announced projects, prior awards history, and anticipated release schedules.

The probabilities below represent implied chances derived from current market pricing.

Current Market-Implied Probabilities

Potential Films Associated With Best Supporting Actor Contenders

The films listed below are projects currently associated with each actor that could plausibly factor into awards consideration for the 2026 ceremony. Inclusion does not imply nomination, eligibility, or Academy recognition.

• Stellan Skarsgård — Dune: Part Two (continued awards consideration cycle)
• Sean Penn — Daddio
• Jacob Elordi — Oh, Canada
• Paul Mescal — Gladiator II
• Andrew Garfield — After the Hunt
• Sean Bean — Robin and the Hoods
• Jeremy Strong — The Apprentice
• Jonathan Bailey — Wicked
• Delroy Lindo — Sinners
• Adam Sandler — Spaceman
• Peter Dinklage — The Toxic Avenger
• Miles Caton — Sinners
• Diego Luna — Kiss of the Spider Woman
• Jack O’Connell — Back to Black
• Akira Emoto — Japanese feature project (TBA)

Final eligibility depends on release dates, qualifying theatrical runs, campaign positioning, and Academy rules.

How Prediction Markets Reflect Best Supporting Actor Expectations

Prediction markets aggregate participant expectations into implied probabilities, which adjust as new information becomes available. In the Best Supporting Actor category, market movement often corresponds with:

• Ensemble strength and narrative prominence
• Festival premieres and critical response
• Prior Academy recognition
• Industry awards and guild nominations

Market prices reflect current expectations, not confirmed outcomes or official Academy positions.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the official Academy Award winner for Best Supporting Actor, as announced during the Oscar ceremony. In the event of delays, disputes, or rule clarifications, resolution follows the Academy’s final published outcome.

Related Oscar Markets

• Predicting the Winner of Best Supporting Actress in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Actor in 2026
• Predicting the Winner of Best Picture in 2026

Important Information

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Predictions markets are volatile and carry risk. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions. It is essential to do research and due diligence to make the best possible judgment, as any purchases shall be your sole responsibility.

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Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.