Predicting the Pro Football Divisional Round Playoff Games

The Pro Football Wild Card Round made good on its promise of excitement. Whether it was the 34-31 shootout between Los Angeles and Carolina or the miracle comeback by Chicago, fans were on the edge of their seats all weekend. Now, the 1-seeds are coming off their bye weeks and welcoming in some of the hottest teams in the league. A win this weekend punches your ticket to a Conference Championship, and the stakes keep rising. Will the top-seeded Denver and Seattle hold serve? Will a wildcard team go on a run to a championship?

Predicting The American Football Conference Divisional Round

Buffalo vs Denver 

Date: Saturday, January 17th

Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

The first matchup of the weekend is a rematch of last year’s wildcard round between Buffalo and Denver. Buffalo overmatched Denver in that game, winning 31-7 in Denver quarterback Bo Nix’s first-ever playoff game. Fast forward to this year, and we have a new set of circumstances for these teams. The game will be in Denver this year, as they secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by going 14-3 in the regular season. Buffalo advanced to the Divisional Round by beating Jacksonville in a tightly contested 27-24 victory last Sunday.

Buffalo has made the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons, but has yet to make an appearance in the championship game under Head Coach Sean McDermott. This could be the year if they continue to win on the road, with last week being the first playoff road win of Quarterback Josh Allen’s career. They have the best secondary in terms of yards given up in the regular season, but remain susceptible to the run game. If they can lock in on some of Denver’s unproven running backs and find ways to score, they can make it back to the conference championships for the second year in a row.

Denver is hoping home-field advantage will be enough to flip this matchup from last year. Another year of development for Bo Nix should help, who led Denver to seven victories over their last eight matchups. They’re the third-best scoring defense in the league, have the reigning best player on defense award-winner in CB Pat Surtain II, and had 11 more sacks than any other team this season. Their hopes of winning this game rely on their ability to move the ball on offense. They play some close games against lesser competition all season, and they will need to put points on the board against Buffalo’s high-powered offense. 

Our predictive markets have this game as a coin flip, with Buffalo having a 51% chance to win the game. 

Predicting Houston vs New England 

Date: Sunday, January 18th

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

The first matchup of Sunday is between two American Football Conference teams that want to play strong defense and protect their young quarterbacks. Houston routed Pittsburgh in the first round with a score of 30-6, in a game that was close until Houston scored two defensive touchdowns. New England claimed victory by holding on against Los Angeles C 16-3. These two teams did not play each other this season, and will meet in the playoffs for the first time since 2017, when New England won 34-16.

Houston has the number one defense in terms of yards per game and the second-best scoring defense in the league. Their struggle will come on the other side of the ball, though, as they have the worst offense left in the playoffs. Quarterback CJ Stroud is in the midst of his third trip to the playoffs with Houston in his third year in the league. He has a 3-2 record all-time, after winning his wild card game and getting eliminated in the divisional round in each season. Houston will likely be without their top pass catcher for this game, as Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Nico Collins sustained a concussion in their victory over Pittsburgh. They will need another player on offense to step up in his absence if they hope to make their first conference championship appearance in franchise history.

New England made the playoffs as the 2-seed and East division champions over Buffalo. They had a 14-3 record over the regular season, but many have been quick to poke holes in their success as they played one of the easiest schedules in the last 50 years. Quarterback Drake Maye is in the conversation for the award given to the best player in the league this season, but he has only one win against a team with a winning record this regular season.

Our predictive markets give the edge to New England in this matchup at home, giving them a 62% chance to win the game. They’re also predicting a lower scoring game with a 54% chance for under 41.5 points.

Predicting The National Football Conference Divisional Round

Predicting San Francisco vs Seattle 

Date: Saturday, January 17th

Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

The second Saturday matchup features another 1-seed hosting another team that pulled an upset in the first round. San Francisco finds themselves in the second round after upsetting the reigning champions, Philadelphia, 23-19. Much like Denver, Seattle secured home-field advantage in the playoffs thanks to a 14-3 record in the regular season on the back of a strong defense. Now, both teams are trying to find their way to a conference championship to be the new representative for the National Football Conference in the championship. These two divisional rivals split the season series this year, with Seattle winning the last matchup of the season to secure the top-seed 13-3.

San Francisco has endured more injuries than any other team in the league this season, and that continued in their first-round matchup against Philadelphia. They lost star tightend George Kittle to an Achilles injury in that game, and will now be without him for the remainder of the playoffs. Still, they have been paving their way through the playoffs thanks to their offense, scoring the 10th most points in the league this season and accounting for the seventh most yards. Quarterback Brock Purdy is playing some of the best football of his career, with an 8-2 record in games he’s started and finished this season.

Seattle is the favorite to win the National Football Conference this season behind quarterback Sam Darnold, whom they brought in this offseason. They have the number one scoring defense in the league this season, and boast one of the top defensive units in recent Pro Football history. They won seven straight games to end the year and are hoping that streak continues for the rest of the playoffs. They need to ensure their defense can keep them in the game long enough for Darnold to get comfortable. Last season with Minnesota, Darnold was eliminated from the playoffs after committing two turnovers and scoring only 9 points. 

Our predictive markets give Seattle the edge in this game, with a 75% chance to win and an 49% chance to cover a 7-point spread. 

Predicting Los Angeles vs Chicago 

Date: Sunday, January 18th

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Our final matchup of the weekend is in Chicago as they host a hot Los Angeles team. Los Angeles outlasted Carolina in the first round, scoring a touchdown in the final minutes to win 34-31. Chicago was also in a thriller in the first round, coming back from being down 21-6 in the fourth quarter to win 31-27. These two teams are meeting in the playoffs for the first time since 1986.

Los Angeles’ quarterback Matt Stafford is having perhaps the best season of his long career. He is the favorite for the award given to the best player in the regular season, and he led the league in passing touchdowns this season. Los Angeles led the league in total yards and points on offense this season, and they’re complemented by the league’s 10th-best scoring defense. They’re hoping to have their entire lineup healthy for this game, as star Wide Receiver Davante Adams struggled with injuries down the stretch.

Chicago is in the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and is coming off their first playoff win since 2010. They’re the second overall seed in the National Football Conference after going 11-6 in the regular season. Their recent success comes largely thanks to first-year Head Coach Ben Johnson and the development of second-year Quarterback Caleb Williams. They scored the ninth-most points in the league this season and led the league in turnovers on defense. 

Our predictive markets believe Los Angeles will win this one on the road, with a 66% chance to move onto the next round and a 53% chance to cover a 3.5 point spread.

Practice Caution When Making Predictions

The data and trends above are to help you make informed decisions when placing predictions on football outcomes. They are not indications of guaranteed outcomes. Although the data above can assist you in making decisions, users should always use responsible practices and discretion when making predictions on Crypto.com’s Sports Prediction Markets.

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