Predicting Thanksgiving and Black Friday Football Matchups

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Who is playing on Thanksgiving this year?

This year’s slate of games offers some intriguing matchups between NFC North powers, America’s team vs the championship runner-up, and two AFC North teams trying to claw back into the playoff picture. Plus, we also get a Black Friday showdown between two NFC playoff teams as we wind down from a full day of action. As we get later in the season, each game tends to mean more, and that’s surely the case for the six teams involved with our holiday showcase. Can Green Bay rally back to the playoffs after a tough stretch? Is Detroit a superpower in the NFC? Can Kansas City right the ship and go back to the Championship?

> Green Bay vs Detroit - Thursday, November 27, 2025

Both Green Bay and Detroit have high aspirations for how this season could end, but they may be standing in each other’s way to get there. Based on CDC’s predictive sports module, Detroit has a 20% chance to win the NFC, with Green Bay directly behind them at 13%, good for the third and fourth best odds, respectively.

How Detroit is dealing with new coaches

After an offseason that saw them lose both their offensive and defensive coordinators, it’s been a mixed bag for Detroit. They’ve had times where both sides of the ball are clicking, like in their 52-21 win over Chicago in Week 2, but they’ve also had games where they can’t seem to get either of their offense or defense together, like their 30-17 loss to Kansas City in Week 6. The key for them will be to get their offensive studs into open space so they can make explosive plays, something that has been Head Coach Dan Campbell’s focus since he took over offensive play calling in Week 10.

Green Bay’s rough stretch

Green Bay hasn’t been enjoying the most consistent season either. After trading for star Edge Rusher Micah Parsons moments before the season kicked off, they were thought to be one of the elite defensive units in the league. However, at the time of writing, they’re only the 14th-ranked total defense by EPA per play. They’ve had times where they look unstoppable, like in their first meeting against Detroit, where they won 27-13. But they’ve also lost head-scratching games against bottom-ranked teams like Cleveland and Carolina. The offense hasn’t looked the same since star TE Tucker Kraft tore his ACL, and they’ve been dealing with a myriad of injuries in their Wide Receiver room. To sweep the season series against Detroit, they’ll need their healthy offensive pieces to step up and their defense to rise to the occasion.

Detroit’s Thanksgiving dominance

These two divisionmates have a long history together, but Green Bay has dominated Detroit historically. Green Bay is 107-78-7 against Detroit all-time, but Detroit is 6-4 in their last ten matchups. This will be the 35th time they’ve faced off on Thanksgiving, and Detroit holds an 18-15-2 record in those matchups. The CDC’s predictive sports module has yet to set a market for Detroit vs Green Bay.

> Kansas City vs Dallas - Thursday, November 27, 2025

Kansas City travels to Dallas for the 4:25 pm ET matchup on Thanksgiving. Kansas City is coming off a season where they lost in the championship to Dallas’ biggest rival, while Dallas hasn’t won a championship in nearly 30 years. Based on CDC’s predictive sports module, Kansas City has the highest odds to win the championship at 14%, while Dallas only has a 1% chance to win.

A rough start for Kansas City

Kansas City fans were panicking when the team got off to a 0-2 start, dropping games to their division rival, Los Angeles, and to the reigning champs, Philadelphia. But they’ve been slowly clawing themselves out of that hole and have been battling in a close race for the AFC West title. They still have the Head Coach and Quarterback combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, which has led them to five championship appearances since 2019, winning three of them. With such a track record of success, Kansas City just needs to clinch a playoff spot in a crowded AFC to ensure they have a shot at the title. 

Dallas’ defense isn’t holding up

It’s been a tumultuous season for Dallas, on the other hand. The story of Dallas’ season is their lack of defense since trading the aforementioned Parsons to Green Bay. At the time of writing, they rank 31 out of 32 teams in overall defensive metrics. The offense can play with anyone in the league, though, as Quarterback Dak Prescott has been able to feed his all-star Wide Receiver combo of Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens when it matters. With a high-scoring offense and underperforming defense, Dallas games have averaged 60 points per game. I would expect fireworks in this one as well.

A strong historical record for Dallas on Thanksgiving

Despite their recent success, Kansas City has only beaten Dallas five times in the 12 games they’ve played against each other, a matchup we haven’t seen since 2021. Dallas, as an annual fixture on Thanksgiving, holds a 34-22-1 record on the holiday. Kansas City hasn’t played on Thanksgiving since 2006, and they have a 5-5 record all-time. Dallas won their only matchup against Kansas City on Thanksgiving in 1995. The CDC’s predictive sports module has yet to set a market for Dallas vs Kansas City.

> Cincinnati vs Baltimore - Thursday, November 27, 2025

The Thanksgiving nightcap will feature two AFC North teams that are hanging in the playoff picture after disastrous injuries to their starting quarterbacks early in the season. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow hasn’t played since their Week 2 game against Jacksonville, while Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson missed three games, causing them to go 1-2 over that stretch. It appears Burrow is nearing a return, but his availability for this game is uncertain. If Burrow can’t go, Joe Flacco, whom Cincinnati acquired midseason from Cleveland, will get the start.

Cincinnati hanging in there without its quarterback

Cincinnati is having a similar season to Dallas, where they are an all offense, no defense makeup. They are the 32nd-ranked defense, but have been able to put points on the board with star Wide Receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Joe Flacco has filled in admirably for Joe Burrow in his absence, averaging nearly 33 points per game. Flacco has done enough to keep Cincinnati in the playoff picture until Burrow comes back, but their margin for error continues to shrink. CDC’s predictive sports module only gives them a 1% chance to win the AFC. 

Baltimore is bouncing back after a scary start

Baltimore looked to be dead in the water after a 1-3 start with Quarterback Lamar Jackson injured. But they continue to rattle off wins with Jackson back in the lineup, and are now the favorites to win the AFC North division over Pittsburgh.  They still maintain a 13% chance to win the AFC on CDC’s sports prediction module, and they’ve been able to keep their championship aspirations alive. If their defense can stop Cincinnati’s high-flying offense, Baltimore will be able to hold their own in this matchup. However, if the defense doesn’t come ready to play, they could be on upset-watch.

A never-before-seen Thanksgiving matchup

This AFC North rivalry has been played 59 times in league history, including one matchup in the postseason. Baltimore has a 32-27 lead in the series historically. The two teams have never faced off on Thanksgiving before, but Baltimore has a perfect 2-0 record on the holiday. Cincinnati has only played once on Thanksgiving, and they lost to New York (AFC) in 2010. CDC’s sports predictive module has yet to set a market for Baltimore vs New York (AFC).

> Chicago vs Philadelphia - Friday, November 28, 2025

This season’s Black Friday game will take place in Philadelphia, as the reigning champions host one of the NFC's up-and-coming teams, Chicago. Chicago is battling for a playoff spot behind the previously mentioned Detroit and Green Bay in a tough NFC North conference, while Philadelphia is trying to defend its championship title. 

Chicago welcomed in former Detroit Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson as their new Head Coach in the offseason, and he has this offense clicking. At the time of writing, Chicago’s offense ranks third in total yards per game and seventh in total points per game on offense. Johnson has taken the development of his young Quarterback, Caleb Williams, seriously, and it’s been paying dividends on the offensive side of the ball.

Philadelphia lost its Offensive Coordinator, Kellen Moore, in the offseason, and the offense has been struggling to adjust since. After a season where he compiled 2,005 rushing yards, star running back Saquon Barkley didn’t break a run longer than 18 yards until Week 8 this season. After a much-needed bye week in Week 9, the offense seems to be gelling again, but can they stay hot down the stretch?

Installing a new tradition in pro football

It’s just the third year that the league has played a Pro Football game on Black Friday. In the first installment, Miami defeated New York (AFC) 34-13 in 2023. Last year, they handed the baton to Kansas City and Las Vegas, where Kansas City edged out a win 19-17. This is the first Black Friday game that will not feature a divisional matchup.

Despite Philadelphia’s recent success, Chicago owns their all-time series record 29-17-1. The two teams last played in 2022, and Philadelphia has won the last six matchups. CDC’s sports predictive module has yet to set a market for Philadelphia vs Chicago.

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