Predicting how many jobs will be added in December 2025: Monthly US jobs forecasts through February 2026

Current state of the US labor market

The US labor market has cooled steadily through 2025. As of August, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 22,000 positions – a fraction of the monthly gains seen in 2023 – while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, a sign that wage growth has stabilized after two years of rapid gains. The labor force participation rate held near 62.3%.

Job openings were approximately 7.2 million in August, while the number of unemployed workers stood around 7.4 million. That puts the job-openings-to-unemployed ratio below 1 for the first time since early 2021, meaning there are now fewer available positions than job seekers. This is a sign of weakening labor demand.

Important note

Due to the US government shutdown that began in late September 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has suspended publication of its Employment Situation reports. 

As a result, the figures for September and October in this article are modeled estimates based on private-sector data, historical trends and leading indicators.

Throughout Q4, the labor market reflected several defining patterns:

• Slower hiring across interest-sensitive sectors.
• A continued cooling in job openings.
• A still-elevated but stabilizing participation rate.
• Hiring concentrated in a handful of resilient industries such as healthcare and logistics.

The December forecast extends these existing dynamics into the final month of the year.

Jobs trend by sector: July vs August data

“The jobs engine that has been integral to US economic growth defying expectations for the past four years is stalling,” said Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo. “Weakness remains widespread across industries, making it difficult to drive a bounce-back in the near term.” (Source)

Economic factors influencing job growth forecasts

Hiring decisions are shaped by a mix of economic headwinds and sector-specific realities. 

Because official data for September through November are unavailable at the time of writing, labor-market analysis currently depends on private indicators and economic fundamentals.

1. GDP and business activity

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q2 2025 and is tracking below 2% for the second half of the year, pointing to slower consumer spending and softer inventory investment. 

Historically, every 1% point slowdown in GDP growth translates into roughly a 0.2-point reduction in job growth over the next two quarters.

2. Inflation and interest rates

Consumer price inflation (CPI) has settled around 2.6% year-over-year, but real borrowing costs remain high after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2024 tightening cycle. Elevated rates discourage business expansion and new hiring in interest-sensitive sectors like housing and durables.

3. Corporate earnings and hiring intentions

According to the Fed’s Beige Book, most businesses report ‘flat to slightly positive employment plans’. 

4. Technology and automation

Automation continues to restrain low-skill hiring while supporting growth in tech and AI-related roles. Manufacturing employment remains pressured as firms substitute capital for labor.

5. Demographics and housing

An aging workforce and lower immigration rates limit labor supply. Meanwhile, a rebounding housing market in the Sun Belt is reviving construction hiring after a mid-year pause.

How private forecast models estimate job growth

With the BLS not releasing current data, analysts turn to private-sector models built from alternative indicators such as the Institute for Supply Management’s employment indexes, ADP payroll data, jobless-claims filings and business surveys.

These models use historical relationships between indicators to estimate likely ranges of job growth rather than precise outcomes. 

The figures below represent modeled estimates compiled from consensus forecasts and proprietary econometric tools rather than official government statistics.

December 2025 jobs report forecast

Private-sector consensus estimates suggest nonfarm payroll gains for December 2025 could range between 110,000 and 170,000, based on currently available indicators. This replaces the earlier October range of 85,000 to 165,000.

Because the official September to November data are delayed, no confirmed figures exist until the BLS resumes publication following the shutdown.

Average hourly earnings are expected by private models to increase modestly, in the 0.2% to 0.3% range, though official confirmation awaits future data releases.

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Private estimates for late 2025 and early 2026

*A 90% confidence interval means the model expects actual job growth to fall within that range nine times out of ten, given current data volatility.

November 2025 jobs forecast

Holiday hiring may peak in retail and delivery services. Private models estimate approximately 160,000 new jobs for November 2025, with wages up around 0.4% as overtime rises.

December 2025 jobs forecast

Updated projections suggest that payroll growth in December 2025 may reach approximately 140,000, reflecting modest seasonal hiring and continued softness in several sectors.

Retail and hospitality may lose momentum after early-December peaks, while finance and professional services remain stable. Logistics and healthcare are expected to underpin most of the month’s gains.

January 2026 jobs forecast

Seasonal layoffs in retail and education may pull job gains down to roughly 70,000. Public sector hiring may pick up modestly with new budgets.

February 2026 jobs forecast

Private-sector models indicate that February 2026 payroll growth may return to roughly 95,000 jobs, gradually normalizing after January’s seasonal layoffs. Hiring in services and logistics is expected to stabilize, while early-year onboarding in healthcare and state agencies may offer additional support. Manufacturing conditions remain mixed and the month’s gains are likely to reflect a slow recovery from the typical post-holiday employment dip.

How job growth data informs financial markets

Market participants watch the monthly jobs report more closely than any other indicator. Surprises often move stocks, bonds, currencies, and even cryptocurrencies within minutes.

1. Historical market reactions

When employment data beats expectations, yields tend to rise as investors price in tighter monetary policy. 

Stocks of cyclical companies benefit initially, while defensive sectors lag. Conversely, weak job numbers send Treasury yields lower as investors seek safety, often lifting bond prices and high-dividend equities.

2. Federal Reserve policy response

The Fed has signaled that sustained job market weakness would justify further rate cuts in 2026. This creates a feedback loop between labor data and financial conditions. 

For a deeper dive, see our guide on how political and economic events implicate digital assets.

3. Bond, equity, and FX implications

A strong December print (for example, above 200,000) could push 10-year yields higher as investors reassess the trajectory of monetary policy, while a weak report (for example, below 75,000) may enhance demand for safe-haven assets such as Treasuries and depress the US dollar.

4. Cryptocurrency markets

Crypto assets react to liquidity and risk sentiment. Stronger labor data can tighten financial conditions and cool speculative flows, while weaker data – and the prospect of rate cuts – tend to support digital assets. 

Explore the relationship between economic data and crypto markets to see how these cycles interact.

Common approaches among investors based on employment forecasts

Investors can also trade based on market-moving economic events using Crypto.com’s platform or consult in-depth market analysis and forecasts for macro updates.

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What to watch for in upcoming jobs reports

Even with the government shutdown delaying official data, investors and analysts can still monitor a few high-frequency indicators that tend to anticipate the direction of hiring.

Key metrics to focus on once releases resume include:

• Revisions to prior months. These often signal turning points earlier than headline figures.
• Average hourly earnings growth. This is a crucial inflation gauge for the Fed.
• Labor force participation rate shifts can distinguish between genuine job creation and statistical artifacts.
• Sectoral dispersion can signal whether hiring is broad-based or concentrated in a few resilient industries.
  

*Investors should focus on revisions, wage growth trends, and changes in participation once data publication resumes, as these can signal turning points in economic momentum.

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Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.