Predicting how many jobs will be added in October 2025: Monthly US jobs forecasts through January 2026

Current state of the US labor market

The US labor market has cooled steadily through 2025. As of August, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 22,000 positions – a fraction of the monthly gains seen in 2023 – while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, a sign that wage growth has stabilized after two years of rapid gains. The labor force participation rate held near 62.3%.

Job openings were approximately 7.2 million in August, while the number of unemployed workers stood around 7.4 million. That puts the job-openings-to-unemployed ratio below 1 for the first time since early 2021, meaning there are now fewer available positions than job seekers. This is a sign of weakening labor demand.

Important note

Due to the US government shutdown that began in late September 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has suspended publication of its Employment Situation reports. 

As a result, the figures for September and October in this article are modeled estimates based on private-sector data, historical trends and leading indicators.

Jobs trend by sector: July vs August data

“The jobs engine that has been integral to US economic growth defying expectations for the past four years is stalling,” said Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo. “Weakness remains widespread across industries, making it difficult to drive a bounce-back in the near term.” (Source)

Economic factors influencing job growth forecasts

Hiring decisions are shaped by a mix of economic headwinds and sector-specific realities. 

Because official data for September and October are unavailable at the time of writing, labor-market analysis currently depends on private indicators and economic fundamentals.

1. GDP and business activity

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q2 2025 and is tracking below 2% for the second half of the year, pointing to slower consumer spending and softer inventory investment. 

Historically, every 1% point slowdown in GDP growth translates into roughly a 0.2-point reduction in job growth over the next two quarters.

2. Inflation and interest rates

Consumer price inflation (CPI) has settled around 2.6% year-over-year, but real borrowing costs remain high after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2024 tightening cycle. Elevated rates discourage business expansion and new hiring in interest-sensitive sectors like housing and durables.

3. Corporate earnings and hiring intentions

According to the Fed’s Beige Book, most businesses report ‘flat to slightly positive employment plans’. 

4. Technology and automation

Automation continues to restrain low-skill hiring while supporting growth in tech and AI-related roles. Manufacturing employment remains pressured as firms substitute capital for labor.

5. Demographics and housing

An aging workforce and lower immigration rates limit labor supply. Meanwhile, a rebounding housing market in the Sun Belt is reviving construction hiring after a mid-year pause.

How private forecast models estimate job growth

With the BLS not releasing current data, analysts turn to private-sector models built from alternative indicators such as the Institute for Supply Management’s employment indexes, ADP payroll data, jobless-claims filings, and business surveys.

These models use historical relationships between indicators to estimate likely ranges of job growth rather than precise outcomes. 

The figures below represent modeled estimates compiled from consensus forecasts and proprietary econometric tools rather than official government statistics.

October 2025 jobs report forecast

Private-sector consensus estimates suggest nonfarm payroll gains for October 2025 could range between 85,000 and 165,000, based on currently available indicators.

Because the official September and October data are delayed, no confirmed figures exist until the BLS resumes publication following the shutdown.

Average hourly earnings are expected by private models to increase modestly, though official confirmation awaits future data releases.

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Private estimates for late 2025 and early 2026

*A 90% confidence interval means the model expects actual job growth to fall within that range nine times out of ten, given current data volatility.

November 2025 jobs forecast

Holiday hiring may peak in retail and delivery services. The model anticipates around 160,000 new jobs, with wages up 0.4% as overtime rises.

December 2025 jobs forecast

Payroll growth may slow to about 95,000. Retail and hospitality may lose momentum after holiday peaks, while finance and professional services stay stable.

January 2026 jobs forecast

Seasonal layoffs in retail and education may pull job gains down to roughly 70,000. Public sector hiring may pick up modestly with new budgets.

How job growth data informs financial markets

Market participants watch the monthly jobs report more closely than any other indicator. Surprises often move stocks, bonds, currencies, and even cryptocurrencies within minutes.

1. Historical market reactions

When employment data beats expectations, yields tend to rise as investors price in tighter monetary policy. 

Stocks of cyclical companies benefit initially, while defensive sectors lag. Conversely, weak job numbers send Treasury yields lower as investors seek safety, often lifting bond prices and high-dividend equities.

2. Federal Reserve policy response

The Fed has signaled that sustained job market weakness would justify further rate cuts in 2026. This creates a feedback loop between labor data and financial conditions. 

For a deeper dive, see our guide on how political and economic events implicate digital assets.

3. Bond, equity, and FX implications

A strong jobs print (>200,000) could push 10-year yields above 4.5% and lift the US dollar, while a weak report (<75,000) may trigger a flight to bonds and depreciate the currency.

4. Cryptocurrency markets

Crypto assets react to liquidity and risk sentiment. Stronger labor data can tighten financial conditions and cool speculative flows, while weaker data – and the prospect of rate cuts – tend to support digital assets. 

Explore the relationship between economic data and crypto markets to see how these cycles interact.

Common approaches among investors based on employment forecasts

Investors can also trade based on market-moving economic events using Crypto.com’s platform or consult in-depth market analysis and forecasts for macro updates.

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What to watch for in upcoming jobs reports

Even with the government shutdown delaying official data, investors and analysts can still monitor a few high-frequency indicators that tend to anticipate the direction of hiring.

Key metrics to focus on once releases resume include:

• Revisions to prior months. These often signal turning points earlier than headline figures.
• Average hourly earnings growth. This is a crucial inflation gauge for the Fed.
• Labor force participation rate shifts can distinguish between genuine job creation and statistical artifacts.
• Sectoral dispersion can signal whether hiring is broad-based or concentrated in a few resilient industries.
  

*Investors should focus on revisions, wage growth trends, and changes in participation once data publication resumes, as these can signal turning points in economic momentum.

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Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.