Bitcoin price under pressure: What happens next after the drop to $65,000?

Triggers behind the latest drop

Bitcoin's move back to $65,000 this week was swift and, for those watching the macro calendar, not entirely surprising. 

Bitcoin dipped as investors weighed mounting tariff uncertainties and geopolitical concerns, trading as low as $64,830 early in the session as it continued a nearly 5% slide that had begun a day earlier. Over last weekend, the decline brought the digital asset to near $64,000 at its nadir, its lowest level since February 6 when it hit $60,062. 

The proximate trigger was clear. Bitcoin fell after President Donald Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs to 15%, rattling risk sentiment across markets. But this was not a single-event story. 

The sell-off unfolded against a backdrop of compounding anxieties: renewed Iran tensions, weakness in U.S. tech stocks following AI sector jitters, and a broader institutional re-evaluation of risk exposure in a year that has consistently failed to deliver the post-halving rally many had modelled.

What made the move particularly notable was its divergence from other asset classes. Bitcoin's decline came at a time when Asian stock markets were actually rising, clearly showing the divergence between classic assets and crypto markets in the face of new uncertainty fuelled by changing U.S. tariff policies. 

Crypto-adjacent equities were also under pressure: Strategy fell 1.64%, Coinbase 1.55%, Robinhood 1.33%, and Block lost 0.98% in the same session, suggesting the selling was targeted at digital asset exposure broadly rather than reflecting any single piece of negative news.

Sentiment at extreme fear

The community and market sentiment picture heading into March appears bearish. The Fear & Greed Index has been anchored in Extreme Fear territory for the better part of three weeks, and prediction market data tells a similar story. According to prediction markets, 62% of users believe Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this year, a remarkable level of bearish consensus for an asset that was trading above $100,000 just months ago.

Social media sentiment has followed the price lower. The bullish voices that dominated crypto through the second half of 2025 have grown noticeably quieter, replaced by what seems to be a mix of macro doomsayers and the perennial cohort of long-term holders publicly committing to holding regardless. 

On-chain data adds texture to that picture: U.S. exchange-traded funds, which purchased 46,000 bitcoin this time last year, are net sellers in 2026, a significant shift that has removed one of the most consistent sources of structural buying pressure the market had come to rely on post-ETF approval.

The counterargument to the doom narrative is historical precedent. Extreme Fear readings of this magnitude (single-digit Fear & Greed scores, prediction markets pricing in near-certain further declines) have a notably poor track record as forward indicators. 

In June 2022, when sentiment was at comparably dire levels, Bitcoin was within weeks of its cycle bottom at $15,500. In March 2020, Extreme Fear coincided almost exactly with the COVID crash low before a massive rally. None of that guarantees a bottom here, but it does suggest that the consensus view in moments like this deserves some scepticism.

Where does BTC go in March? 

The range of analyst forecasts for Bitcoin in March and through 2026 is unusually wide, which is itself telling. When experts modelling the same asset cannot agree on a $50,000–$150,000 range, it reflects genuine macro uncertainty rather than any confusion about Bitcoin's fundamentals.

The bearish institutional case is currently the most publicly prominent. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, told CNBC he expects Bitcoin to fall as low as $50,000 in the summer, adding that ‘2026 I expect to be a bear leg to the four-year cycle.’ Standard Chartered has aligned with this view. 

Historical patterns cited by analysts suggest Bitcoin may not find a lasting bottom until specific moving average crossovers occur at lower price levels, pointing to potential further downside toward $50,000 or below. 

The bull case is quieter but structurally grounded. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a development with no parallel in any previous cycle, represents government-level endorsement of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Corporate treasury buyers from MicroStrategy to Metaplanet have treated every major dip as an acquisition opportunity and have continued to do so through February's correction. 

And the halving cycle thesis, which has held through every previous four-year period, points to meaningful price appreciation in the 12–18 months following the April 2024 event, a window that still has considerable runway. Some market watchers note that Bitcoin is showing signs that its historical four-year halving cycle remains intact even if the timing of the recovery has been pushed back by macro headwinds.

For March specifically, the range of outcomes is bracketed by $60,000 on the downside and $72,000–$75,000 on the upside. The key $60,000 support level is being closely watched, with a break potentially opening the way to the mid-to-low $50,000 range. Above $70,000, momentum could shift quickly given how much short positioning has built up during the correction. 

The direction of resolution will depend, as it has throughout this correction, on events largely outside the crypto market's control, and on whether the macro environment gives investors any reason to step back into risk.

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