Market Update (November 2025)
This report provides an overview of market updates in November, new developments, and our latest market outlook.
Executive Summary
- Overall Market Performance: November 2025 concluded with broadly positive momentum across asset classes except for crypto. S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced a volatile ride but ultimately recorded slight gains. Nasdaq Composite was weighed down by tech and AI-related stocks. Gold continued to increase. BTC and ETH dropped by -16.1% and -21.3%, respectively.
- G20 Macro Environment: Interest rate updates from central banks were relatively muted in November, while focus turned to December rate cut probabilities across major economies, including the US. While near-term growth outlook was revised up due to frontloading, medium-term growth outlook has moderated amid headwinds across G20 economies.
- Crypto Market Dynamics: All DeFi categories decreased in November except for DEX. BTC ETFs drew US$3.4 billion in net outflows, while ETH ETFs drew $1.4 billion in net outflows.
- Crypto Regulatory Developments: The US White House is reviewing the Treasury’s proposal to join the global Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF). The US Internal Revenue Service issued new guidance to allow ETPs to stake their crypto assets under certain conditions. The UK proposed a new tax framework that defers capital gains tax for DeFi lending and liquidity pools.
- Equity Market Trends: The US stock market saw mixed price changes in November (S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq Composite -1.5%), driven by valuation concerns over megacap technology stocks and central bank policies. European indices saw slight gains except for Germany. Asian equities dropped, with the exception of India and Singapore.
- New Developments in Crypto and TradFi: Crypto.com partnered with Hollywood.com to launch an entertainment-focused prediction market, and also partnered with MyPrize to launch MyPrize markets. Crypto.com and Trump Media announced that Crypto.com Level Up programme participants can receive a Truth+ subscription rebate. Meanwhile, the US State of Texas acquired $5 million in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), marking the first time a US state purchased bitcoin for its Treasury.
- Outlook on Key Projects and Tokens: Cronos launched the x402 PayTech Hackathon from Nov 2025 to Jan 2026. Ethereum completed its Fusaka upgrade on 3 December. Ripple launched Ripple Prime, a digital asset prime brokerage service, for US institutional investors. FTSE Russell partnered with Chainlink to bring its equity and digital asset indices on-chain. Uniswap introduced the ‘UNIfication’ proposal and Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA) protocol.
1. Overview
November 2025 concluded with broadly positive momentum across asset classes except for crypto. S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced a volatile ride, but ultimately resulted in slight gains month-on-month. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%, weighed down by tech and AI-related stocks. Gold continued to increase.
Crypto markets were mostly down for the month. BTC and ETH dropped by -16.1% and -21.3%, respectively, coinciding with net outflows from crypto ETFs and uncertainty over potential Fed rate cuts in December. Monetary policy expectations, equity valuation concerns, and macroeconomic data continue to shape the outlook for these assets.
Assets | Nov | 3M | 6M | 12M | YTD |
BTC | -16.1% | -16.5% | -12.7% | -6.8% | -1.9% |
ETH | -21.3% | -31.6% | 18.5% | -16.9% | -11.0% |
S&P 500 | 0.1% | 6.0% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 16.4% |
NASDAQ Composite | -1.5% | 8.9% | 22.2% | 21.6% | 21.0% |
MSCI All Country World | 0.0% | 6.0% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 20.4% |
MSCI Emerging Markets | -1.8% | 8.9% | 19.3% | 25.6% | 29.9% |
Gold | 5.4% | 21.9% | 27.8% | 57.9% | 60.2% |
S&P REIT Index | 2.2% | 1.1% | 3.4% | -5.7% | 3.4% |
Invesco DB Commodity Index | 0.8% | 3.8% | 10.4% | 4.2% | 7.9% |
Core US Aggregate Bond ETF | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% |
1.1 Macro of the G20 Economies
Interest rate updates from central banks were relatively muted in November, while focus turned to December rate cut probabilities across major economies, including the US. While near-term growth outlook was revised up due to frontloading, medium-term growth outlook has moderated amid headwinds across G20 economies.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
In the US, President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The shutdown coincided with heightened market uncertainty, elevated volatility, and delays in regulatory actions and key economic data releases. Fed minutes revealed disagreements over the outlook of a December rate cut, with probabilities dropping below 30% in mid-November before recovering to 87% by month-end.
Meanwhile, Japan approved a JPY 21.3 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package which includes account outlays and tax cuts. Additionally, Japan issued stronger warnings about potential intervention in currency markets and signalled a possible near-term interest rate increase, directing focus to the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting.
Trade and External Pressures
Unlike October’s escalation and subsequent truce between the US and China, November brought more follow-through rather than fresh shocks on the trade front. The US cut fentanyl-related tariffs on China to 10% on 10 November. China also suspended retaliatory tariffs against certain US imports including farm goods, as well as suspended the implementation of rare earth export controls announced in October for one year.
Outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s annual report revealed that despite the projected G20 growth to 3.2% in 2025, medium-term growth is expected to be at 2.9%, the weakest level since the global financial crisis. The report cited headwinds from debt dynamics, policy uncertainties, and demographic shifts. However, reforms in certain G20 countries are making progress to improve growth sustainability.
1.2 Crypto Market
All DeFi categories decreased in November except for DEX. Liquid Staking and Oracles categories led the market capitalisation (MC) decline.
DEX increase was led by 1inch (+23%) and Sushi (+11%). 1inch announced the developer release of Aqua, a shared liquidity protocol designed to address capital fragmentation in DeFi. Liquid Staking decrease was led by Jito (-47%) and EigenLayer (-36%), in line with broader crypto sector weakness during the month.
US spot BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $3.4 billion in November, reversing October’s net inflows and marking the second-highest monthly net outflow since the ETFs launched. Additionally, assets under management (AUM) for BTC ETFs dropped by 16.7% in November, while the AUM for ETH ETFs dropped by 27.9%.
Spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.4 billion in November, the largest monthly net outflow since the ETFs launched.
1.3 Crypto Regulation Updates
Country | Crypto Regulatory Updates |
United States | • The White House is reviewing the Treasury’s proposal to join the global Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), which would allow the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to gain information on Americans’ foreign crypto accounts. This aims to curb international tax evasion. • The IRS issued new guidance allowing ETPs to stake their crypto assets under certain conditions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the guidance allows ETPs to share staking rewards with retail investors. • Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is reportedly considering guidance for tokenised deposit insurance, along with a guidance for stablecoin issuance and an application process expected in 2025. • The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) clarified that banks can maintain crypto assets that are expected to be used to pay for network gas fees. • The US SEC’s Crypto Task Force will hold a privacy and financial surveillance focused roundtable on 15 December, reflecting recent renewed focus on privacy measures in the industry. • US lawmaker Warren Davidson introduced a bill to the House of Representatives that would allow federal taxes to be paid directly in BTC. Proceeds are proposed to go into the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, enabling the US to grow the reserve without purchasing BTC. |
Japan | • Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) will reportedly revise its requirements for crypto exchanges to maintain liability reserves, aiming to protect users against hacks or breaches. |
India | • India’s government may consider stablecoin regulations which will be presented in the Ministry of Finance’s annual report. This potentially diverges from the Reserve Bank of India’s cautious stance on stablecoins and crypto. |
United Kingdom | • Bank of England confirmed plans for temporary holding limits on stablecoins of 20,000 pounds (US$26,300) per coin for individuals and 10 million pounds (US$13.2 million) for businesses. The limits will be lifted once stablecoins are fully integrated into the financial system. • Bank of England launched a consultation paper on stablecoin regulation on 10 November to keep pace with the US. • The HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) proposed a new tax framework that defers capital gain taxes for DeFi lending and liquidity pools. Under the rule, it will adopt a ‘no gain, no loss’ approach under which tax will be calculated when liquidity tokens are redeemed. • United Kingdom will require domestic crypto platforms to report transactions by UK resident users from 2026 under the CARF, giving the local tax authority access to both domestic and cross-border crypto activity. |
Canada | • Government of Canada passed a budget with a new policy governing stablecoins. It specifies that issuers in Canada must maintain one-to-one reserves of the reserve currency or other liquid assets, as well as comply with risk management and disclosure requirements. |
Brazil | • Brazil’s central bank established crypto regulations with details on licensing, capital requirements, and classification of crypto activities. The rules will take effect on 2 February 2026, and companies will have nine months from then to comply. |
Australia | • Australia’s government introduced a bill to regulate crypto under existing financial services laws, requiring digital-asset service providers to obtain an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL). |
South Korea | • South Korea is preparing to expand its travel rule requirements to transactions below 1 million KRW ($680), obliging exchanges to collect and transmit sender-recipient information for low-value transfers in a move to reduce money laundering. |
UAE | • UAE central bank’s new law, Federal Decree Law No. 6 of 2025, extends regulatory oversight to DeFi platforms and broader Web3 players. The law was issued on and effective since 16 September. |
1.4 Equity Market
US
The US stock market saw mixed price changes in November. Major indices including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipped towards the middle of the month before recovering and ended the month in slight gains. Nasdaq ended lower as tech and AI-related stocks weighed on performance. Momentum was driven by valuation concerns around megacap technology stocks and central bank policies.
S&P 500 | +0.13% |
Dow Jones | +0.32% |
Nasdaq Composite | -1.51% |
Key Drivers of the US Stock Market:
- Fed Rate Cut and Macro Uncertainties: Fed December rate cut probabilities fluctuated largely in the month, dropping to 30% in mid-November before rebounding to 87% towards the end of the month.
- Earnings Strength but High Investor Expectations: Q3 earnings were broadly strong particularly for technology stocks. However, concerns over heightened valuations and optimistic profit expectations weighed on US equities in the month.
- Delayed US Economy Data: The longest US government shutdown in history ended in mid-November, but economic data is still being gradually released.
- Sector Rotation: Technology was the worst-performing sector in the month (-4.3% based on equal weight sectors). Healthcare (+7.3%) and Materials (+5.7%) led the monthly gains.
Europe
European equity markets saw similar price trends through the month, with indices seeing slight gains in November except for Germany.
Europe | EURO STOXX 50 | +0.11% |
STOOX Europe 600 | +0.79% | |
UK | FTSE | +0.03% |
Germany | DAX | -0.51% |
France | CAC | +0.02% |
Primary Market Drivers:
Eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, faster than expectations due to a surge in exports ahead of the expected tariffs. Inflation in the euro area was 2.1% in October, close to the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Sentiment was impacted by US Fed rate cut uncertainties as well as a general risk-off sentiment towards tech stocks. However, a stronger euro against USD, as well as a lower concentration of technology names in the indices helped European equities outperform those in the US.
Sector Rotation: Healthcare stocks gained in the month, while tech stocks underperformed in line with the sentiment in the US.
Asia
Asian equity markets were more mixed in November as investors rotated out of high-growth technology names following valuation concerns, in line with trends in the US and Europe. Equities in the region dropped with the exception of India and Singapore.
Sector Rotation: Rotation shifted away from AI and semiconductor stocks, which had led earlier rallies but saw profit-taking in November. Defensive sectors generally benefitted.
China | CSI 300 | -2.46% |
Hong Kong | HSI | -0.18% |
India | Sensex | +2.11% |
Nifty 50 | +1.87% | |
Japan | Nikkei 225 | -4.12% |
South Korea | KOSPI | -4.40% |
Singapore | STI | +2.15% |
Australia | ASX 200 | -3.57% |
China
Chinese markets dropped month-on-month. The domestic non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) contracted for the first time to below 50 in nearly three years, while manufacturing activities remained below 50.
Japan
Nikkei 225 dropped in November as tech and AI names paused their rallies. Export-oriented sectors were supported by a weaker yen.
South Korea
Korean equities saw modest consolidation after reaching record highs in October. Foreign investors were net sellers in the month while individual investors remained as net buyers.
1.5 Performance Correlation
BTC’s rolling 30-day return correlation was positive with S&P 500 and Gold, but negative with REIT.
2. New Developments
2.1 Crypto.com News
- Crypto.com and Hollywood.com partnered to launch a new entertainment-focused prediction market, enabling users to trade on event contracts related to movies, shows, awards, and more. Contracts will be offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered exchange, and will provide a secure, federally-compliant platform for entertainment fans to express and trade their opinions.
- Crypto.com partnered with MyPrize, the fastest-growing social gaming business in the US, to launch MyPrize markets, allowing users to access social gaming and prediction markets for the first time in one unified platform. CDNA will provide enterprise-grade infrastructure to support an engaging prediction market experience.
- Crypto.com and Trump Media announced that Crypto.com users participating in its Level Up rewards programme can receive a Truth+ subscription rebate, capped at US$9.95 in CRO per month.
- Figment, OpenTrade, and Crypto.com launched a 15% annual yield product for institutional investors, using Solana staking and perpetual futures to generate returns without exposing investors to price volatility. The product allows users to deposit stablecoins and earn interest, while assets remain custodied in Crypto.com’s legally segregated accounts.
- Crypto.com partnered with VerifiedX (VFX) Network and Sui Foundation to provide secure, institutional-grade custody and liquidity support.
- Crypto.com partnered with IP Strategy (IPST) and Canadian investment firm Universal Digital (CSE: LFG) to support its digital treasury strategy.
2.2 TradFi
Assets Allocation
The following assets were used to construct the portfolio, and returns were compared with adding BTC and ETH:
Asset Class | Assets Selected | Rationale | Weight |
Equities | Broad market exposure and potential for long-term growth | 47.50% | |
Bonds | Stability and regular income | 28.50% | |
Commodities | Gold | Hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty | 9.50% |
Alternatives | Income generation and diversification | 9.50% | |
Crypto | Bitcoin and Ethereum | Largest coins by market cap with relatively less volatility | BTC: 2.5% ETH: 2.5% |
Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum reported that over 60% of institutional investors plan to increase their crypto allocations, with diversification cited as the main reason to invest in crypto.
The US State of Texas acquired $5 million in BlackRock’s IBIT on 20 November at a cost basis of approximately $87,000, with an additional $5 million allocated for self-custodied purchases in the future. This marks the first time a US state purchased bitcoin for its Treasury.
3. Outlook
3.1 Projects and Tokens
Cronos (CRO)
Cronos is launching the x402 PayTech Hackathon from Nov 2025 to Jan 2026, a global builder initiative that brings together developers, AI engineers and payments innovators to explore how autonomous systems can interact with real assets on-chain.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Historically, Bitcoin’s December returns have been modest at around +4.8% since 2013. US Fed interest rate changes and US market data releases remain key indicators to monitor during the month.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum completed its Fusaka upgrade on 3 December. Ethereum Foundation outlined details for the Ethereum Interop Layer (EIP), where wallets work like browsers and users can navigate seamlessly across all Ethereum L2s. Additionally, Ethereum’s mainnet block gas limit reached 60 million, its highest level in four years.
XRP (XRP)
Ripple launched Ripple Prime, a digital asset prime brokerage service for US institutional investors. It also announced a $500 million investment round led by Fortress Investment and Citadel Securities, at a $40 billion valuation. Abu Dhabi’s regulator approved the use of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin within the Abu Dhabi Global Market’s (ADGM) financial zone. Grayscale and Franklin Templeton launched US spot XRP ETFs on 24 November.
Chainlink (LINK)
FTSE Russell and Chainlink partnered to bring its equity and digital asset indices on-chain, including data for Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000 small-cap indexes, FTSE 100 Index, and other benchmarks. Grayscale listed its Chainlink ETF, GLNK, on NYSE Arca, marking the first US ETF linked to Chainlink.
Uniswap (UNI)
Uniswap introduced the ‘UNIfication’ proposal, which features a protocol-level fee mechanism to burn UNI tokens, a fee discount auction system, and the burning of 100 million UNI tokens from the treasury. Uniswap also introduced Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA), an on-chain token auction mechanism that facilitates fair price discovery.
AAVE (AAVE)
Aave Labs received approval under the EU’s MiCA regulation to offer regulated stablecoin ramps across the EEA. The new service, Push, will provide regulated on- and off-ramping of GHO, Aave’s stablecoin, and other stablecoins with zero fees. Aave DAO also approved a proposal to make its AAVE buyback programme permanent, allocating $50 million per year to repurchase tokens. Additionally, Aave launched a savings app offering higher-yield deposit options designed to compete with traditional banks.
3.2 Token Unlock Calendar
Read the full report: Market Update (Nov 2025)
Interested to know more? Access exclusive reports by signing up as a Private member, joining our Crypto.com Exchange VIP Programme, or collecting a Loaded Lions NFT.
Authors
Crypto.com Research and Insights team
Get the latest market, DeFi & NFT updates delivered to your inbox:
Be the first to hear about new insights:
Share with Friends
Related Articles
Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [September 2025]
Market Update (September 2025)
The Institutional Stablecoin Nexus – Convergence of TradFi, Regulation, and Crypto-Native Innovation
Ready to start your crypto journey?
Get your step-by-step guide to setting upan account with Crypto.com
By clicking the Submit button you acknowledge having read the Privacy Notice of Crypto.com where we explain how we use and protect your personal data.