Predicting the NYC mayoral race: Analysis, polls and forecast models

Understanding the NYC mayoral election system

Ranked-choice voting and its implications

New York City uses ranked-choice voting (RCV) in primaries and certain special municipal elections for local offices. The general election uses a system called ‘first-past-the-post’, which means the highest vote-getter wins.

If no candidate gets a majority (more than 50%), the lowest-ranking candidate is eliminated and their votes redistributed based on next preferences. This continues until a winner is declared.

RCV means it’s not enough just to lead in first-choice polling. Candidates must also survive elimination rounds and attract second and third preferences.

Primary to general: The election process

New York City’s path from the primary election to the general election shapes the candidates, rules and strategies that define the race. Here are the key dates and milestones to watch:

• Democratic primary (June 24, 2025): This is the largest contest, as NYC is heavily Democratic. The field was crowded and RCV played a key role in the outcome.
• General election (November 4, 2025): The Democratic nominee faces independent and Republican opponents. The candidate with the most votes wins outright, there are no ranked-choice rounds.

Some candidates who lose or decline to run in primaries may continue on independent lines.
Ballot access, debates, petition thresholds and consolidation pacts often influence the general race.

Timeline of the 2025 cycle

Below is a simple timeline of major milestones:

The office: Powers and constraints

The NYC mayor sets executive priorities on policing, housing, budgeting, education (via the DOE) and intergovernmental relations. Because the office must coordinate with City Council and Albany, policy delivery often depends on cross-level cooperation, which influences forecasting of agenda feasibility.

Voter turnout in NYC mayoral races

Historically, NYC turnout varies by borough and election type. In 2021, Staten Island had the highest general election turnout (33.7%), while the Bronx had the lowest (17.5%). Primary turnout was highest in Manhattan (33.4%) and lowest in the Bronx (19.1%).

Current mayoral candidates: Strengths and vulnerabilities

Here are profiles of the major contenders in the 2025 general election:

Zohran Mamdani (Democrat)

• Background: State assembly member; won the Democratic primary.
• Policy Focus: Housing affordability (tenant protections, public and social housing expansion), transit affordability and progressive tax reforms.
• Fundraising and Resources: He hit the public financing cap in the primary stage, but also raised quickly early in the going: $642,339 from 6,502 donors in the first 80 days.
• Polling: Leads in multiple late-September polls (e.g., NYT/Siena; Quinnipiac; Emerson), though magnitudes vary by methodology and date.

Andrew Cuomo (Independent)

• Background: Former New York governor; running as an independent in the general election.
• Policy Emphasis: Positions campaign on public safety, cost of living and budget management rather than ideological labels.
• Fundraising and Resources: In March 2025, Cuomo raised $1.5 million early in his campaign.
• Polling: He was in second place in recent polls, but still trails Mamdani by double-digit margins in most late-September surveys.

Curtis Sliwa (Republican)

• Background: 2021 GOP nominee; long-time public-safety advocate.
• Policy Emphasis: Law-and-order, tax and quality of life proposals.
• Fundraising and Resources: Smaller scale.
• Polling: General election support in the low-to mid-teens across recent polls.

Eric Adams (Independent, now withdrawn)

Adams ended his re-election bid on September 28, 2025. His name may remain on the ballot due to timing, but any votes for him aren’t redistributed in the general election.

Polling snapshot (late September)

Note: Polls differ in mode, screens and weighting. Interpret aggregates and trends rather than single points.

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Historical patterns in NYC mayoral races

Results and poll performance (recent cycles)

• In past NYC cycles, final-week shifts of up to 6 percentage points have occurred as late news and endorsements landed, a reminder to attach error bands to late polls.
• The elections years 2013 and 2021 offer a contrast; polls broadly captured direction, yet margins shifted with late narratives and turnout variability.

Incumbency effects

Incumbents start out with an edge. People know their name and they have the machinery of the office behind them. 

But scandals or big policy problems can wipe that out fast, as we saw with Adams’s late withdrawal. Voters can be quick to turn when trust is broken, and challengers are usually ready to step in with a fresh pitch. 

That’s why incumbents often spend as much time defending their record as they do promoting it.

Key demographics and borough-by-borough analysis

Demographic patterns

• Age: Mamdani leads among younger voters. Older voters are more contested and show relatively stronger support for Cuomo in several polls.
• Issue Salience: Voters prioritizing cost of living lean more towards Mamdani; voters prioritizing crime and public safety lean more towards Cuomo and Sliwa.
• Race and ethnicity: Support is mixed across Black, Hispanic and Asian voters depending on poll design and subsample sizes.

Borough voting behavior

Each of NYC’s five boroughs has distinct electoral tendencies:

• Manhattan is generally more progressive, with younger residents and higher turnout rates, making it a stronghold for Mamdani.
• Brooklyn shows a mixed profile, as some neighborhoods lean progressive while others are more moderate, producing varied outcomes within the borough.
• Queens is one of the most diverse boroughs, and its electorate often functions as a battleground where swing voters can determine close margins.
• The Bronx has lower average incomes and a higher concentration of minority voters, and it typically delivers strong support for Democratic or left-leaning candidates.
• Staten Island has a more conservative orientation than the other boroughs, which can benefit Sliwa or Cuomo.

Borough tendencies and turnout benchmarks

Changing demographics (immigration, gentrification and shifting commuting patterns) may also tilt some boroughs in unpredictable ways.

Current polling methodology and limitations

How NYC mayoral polls are conducted

Phone, online and mixed-mode surveys sample registered or likely voters and weight by demographics and past participation. 

Because NYC is linguistically and demographically diverse, language access, renter mobility and cell-only households pose certain measurement challenges.

Sample sizes, margin of error and screens

• NYT/Siena: 1,284 LVs; margin of error (MOE) ±3.6
• Quinnipiac: 967 LVs; MOE ±3.9
• Emerson: Details vary by release; recent toplines shown above

Challenges: Diversity, language and access

New York City’s multilingual population, including speakers of English, Spanish, Chinese, and many other languages, complicates survey design and administration. Groups that are harder to reach, such as immigrants, noncitizens and renters, often end up underrepresented in polls despite their significance to the city’s electorate. 

In addition, voter registration data can lag behind actual population changes, leading to potential misrepresentation of the current voting base.

Ranking choice and polling complexity

Many polls report only voters’ first-choice preferences and don’t capture how respondents rank secondary options. A few surveys attempt to ask follow-up questions such as, ‘If your first choice is eliminated, who would you pick next?’, but this approach increases respondent burden and can introduce additional measurement error.

In NYC mayoral cycles, final margins can shift several points in the last week, often tied to late news, endorsements or turnout imbalances. Modelers should allow ±4 to 6 points of movement near election day.

Prediction markets and alternative forecasting methods

How prediction markets work

Traders can buy or sell outcome contracts. For example, the scenario of ‘Candidate X wins’ would have prices translated into implied win probabilities (e.g., a contract trading at $0.60 suggests a 60% chance of victory). 

As these markets respond instantly to news and events, they may adjust faster than polling averages, though they remain sensitive to liquidity levels and the mix of active traders.

On Crypto.com, prediction markets are built directly into the app experience. By tapping the Predict tab on the homepage, you can access event contracts across categories such as Politics, Economics and Sports, with additional categories listed as ‘Coming soon’.* 

This setup makes it simple for anyone to follow major events – like the NYC mayoral race – and potentially profit if predictions prove correct.

Current probabilities 

As of the time of writing, prediction markets show Mamdani as a favorite (exact figure varies by market). 

Since these markets move dynamically, they can serve as a useful supplement (but not as a substitute) to polls.

Efficiency: Markets vs polls

Prediction markets aggregate many different signals and can sometimes outperform individual polls in forecasting accuracy. However, they’re not without drawbacks; markets can be volatile and are often limited by liquidity, uneven expertise among traders or barriers that prevent arbitrage.

Alternative forecasting models

Forecasting doesn’t rely only on markets. Poll aggregation uses trend-weighted averages adjusted for pollster biases. Fundamentals models factor in fundraising, endorsements, economic indicators, and incumbency. Social media sentiment models track both the volume and tone of candidate mentions to capture real-time shifts in public mood.

A balanced practice would be to combine polls, markets and fundamentals with transparent weights and scenario stress tests.

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Key issues driving the NYC mayoral race

Recent polls show that voters consistently rank certain concerns above others. Check out the table below for the top priorities and the ones that form the candidates’ core strategies.

Variation by demographic and borough

In lower-income communities, housing and cost of living concerns remain the most pressing issues. In neighborhoods undergoing gentrification, voters are more likely to prioritize development, zoning, and displacement. 

Residents of the outer boroughs often respond more strongly to messages about transit reliability and public safety. 

Younger voters, meanwhile, place greater emphasis on climate change, inequality, and broader structural reforms.

Recent shocks and shifts

Eric Adams’s campaign was weakened by financial troubles and broader controversies, ultimately leading him to withdraw from the race. Economic pressures, such as rising costs, crime upticks, or a potential wave of housing evictions, could still shift voter focus in the final weeks of the campaign. 

Endorsements from influential figures, such as Vice President Kamala Harris’s public backing of Zohran Mamdani, also have the potential to sway moderates and undecided voters at a critical moment.

The impact of fundraising and endorsements

Current fundraising trends

Small-donor matching can amplify grassroots campaigns in NYC. Public matching rules were central in 2025 and affected candidate viability.

• National and state figures (e.g., reports of Kamala Harris and Hochul backing Mamdani late in the cycle) were covered widely. Endorsements can move media narrative and donor flows, but effects are context-dependent.
• Adams’s exit removed an incumbent competing for moderate votes. Analysts see limited but real vote reallocation to Cuomo, though not enough (so far) to erase Mamdani’s lead.

Fundraising comparison: Mamdani vs Cuomo vs Sliwa

Media coverage and its effect on the race

Local media outlets have zeroed in on issues like crime, the cost of living and housing, but the tone of that coverage varies widely. Some papers highlight affordability and tenant protections, while others give greater weight to policing or budget discipline.

On the national stage, the race is often cast as a referendum on urban politics — more broadly, a clash between progressive and moderate visions of city governance. That framing can amplify polarization, energizing supporters on both sides while sometimes flattening the uniquely local dimensions of New York City politics.

Social media adds yet another layer. Platforms can spotlight emerging coalitions, particularly among younger voters and immigrant communities, but they are notoriously prone to sampling bias and echo chambers. For that reason, most analysts caution against treating a spike in retweets as a meaningful shift in voter sentiment. 

A more careful approach is to track the overall volume of mentions and the net positive or negative tone, then see if those trends correlate with small movements in polling, rather than assuming direct causality.

Building a comprehensive prediction model

A robust forecast of the NYC mayoral race should integrate several key inputs, each weighted according to its reliability and timeliness:

• Polling aggregates (40% to 60%): Trend-adjusted averages of first-choice preferences, with corrections for house effects and error margins.
• Prediction markets (15% to 30%): Real-time prices that capture how traders interpret news and momentum shifts.
• Fundamentals (10% to 20%): Indicators such as fundraising momentum, endorsements, and organizational strength.
• Turnout modeling (10% to 20%): Borough-level baselines (e.g., Staten Island’s 33.7% vs the Bronx’s 17.5% turnout in 2021) adjusted for demographics like age and party.
• Media and sentiment signals: Volume and tone of media coverage or social chatter, used cautiously as secondary confirmation rather than primary drivers.
• Scenario simulations: Stress-testing outcomes under late shocks, such as Adams’s withdrawal or a last-minute endorsement surge.

Accounting for the voting system

Because November is a plurality vote, simulate vote-splitting among non-leading candidates rather than RCV transfers. No redistribution occurs; late withdrawals only affect strategic voting and abstention, not tabulation mechanics.

Scenario and shock handling

Eric Adams’s withdrawal from the race has provided a modest net boost to Andrew Cuomo, according to several analysts. Even so, the shift has not been large enough to change the overall trajectory of the contest, as Zohran Mamdani continues to hold a clear lead in both polls and market odds.

Other late-breaking events, such as a major endorsement or a damaging scandal, can be modeled as ‘shock parameters’. In practice, this means allowing for a swing of roughly two to four percentage points in the affected candidate’s support, with the impact tapering off after about a week unless new developments reinforce the shift.

Example output (illustrative)

Based on late September data, a baseline model might assign Mamdani a 70% chance of victory, Cuomo 28% and Sliwa 2%. Under a sensitivity test, if undecided voters were to break two-to-one in Cuomo’s favor, and turnout among voters aged 55 and older rose by 10% compared with 2021 levels, Cuomo’s win probability could rise into the 35% to 38% range. 

For him to overtake Mamdani entirely, however, it would likely require a combination of factors: a multi-point polling inflection, high-profile bipartisan endorsements and a consolidation of anti-Mamdani voters behind his candidacy.

(Note: Numbers above are a modeling demo. Source-anchored inputs are the polls and market odds cited.)

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Important information: Political forecasting is inherently uncertain. Polls carry sampling and modeling error, late developments may shift dynamics, and RCV transfer flows introduce additional complexity. This article and any model outputs should be viewed as probabilistic estimates, not guarantees.

FAQs about the NYC mayoral race

Can a candidate win without majority first-choice support?
Yes. Under RCV, a candidate may lead on first-choice votes, but still lose if they fail to win transfer rounds from eliminated candidates.

Does NYC use RCV in November?
No. RCV applies to primaries and special local elections. The general election is a plurality vote (first-past-the-post).

What happens to votes for Eric Adams now that he’s withdrawn?
They aren’t redistributed. Votes for Adams (if cast) simply count for Adams. The highest vote-getter wins.

Who’s leading right now?
Late-September polls show Mamdani ahead of Cuomo and Sliwa. Always consult the latest averages and margin of error.

What do markets say?
Polymarket implied 86% Mamdani at the time of writing, but odds shift with news. Treat them as one input alongside polling.

How can I watch the race in ‘real time’?
You can follow the NYC mayoral race in real time by checking reputable news outlets for updated election coverage, tracking the latest polling averages on interactive sites like The New York Times, and monitoring political prediction markets for continuously updated odds. Many media organizations also provide live video analysis and breaking news alerts on social media channels leading up to Election Day.

Important information: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Predictions markets are volatile and carry risk. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions.

*Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.