Predicting the First Round of The College Football Playoffs

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College football’s regular season has come to a close, and twelve teams remain in the running to win a championship this season. The first round of the playoffs features some intriguing matchups between the sport’s powerhouses, plucky underdogs, and a couple of group of five schools that are trying to make a splash. In just the second year of the new postseason format, we still don’t know exactly how the seeding rules and field expansion will affect the parity of the sport. In a wide-open field, who do you think will raise the college football trophy this season?

The College Football Playoff Format

The twelve-team field gives four teams a bye week for the first round. This allows Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech to automatically qualify for the second round as the four highest-ranked teams this season. The rest of the conference championships and at-large qualifiers will face off throughout the weekend to determine who will advance to the next round of a knockout tournament bracket. The last two teams standing will play for a championship on January 19th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

Predicting Alabama vs Oklahoma 

Date: December 19th

Location: Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma

Predict on Crypto.com:Alabama vs Oklahoma

The postseason is a familiar place to find both Alabama and Oklahoma. Of the twelve seasons where the college football playoffs have existed, Alabama has made nine appearances while Oklahoma has made five. Both teams secured playoff berths as at-large bids from the Southeastern Conference, which means they held an impressive enough record to fill one of the seven open spots reserved for non-conference winners.

Two Southeastern Conference Teams Face Off In The First Round

Both teams ended the regular season with a 10-2 record, but Alabama went 7-1 in conference play, so they qualified for the Southeastern Conference championship game, where they were defeated by Georgia 28-7. Alabama is in its second season without Hall of Fame Head Coach Nick Saban, and current Head Coach Kalen DeBoer is making his first-ever playoff appearance with the team.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is hoping QB John Mateer returns to his early-season form, where he was the favorite for the award given to the most valuable player in college football. Mateer broke a bone in his right hand that required surgery in Week 4 in a game against Auburn, which caused his performance to become shaky midseason. But down the stretch, Mateer corrected course and knocked off several ranked opponents, including Alabama by a score of 23-21. 

A Close Matchup Between Familiar Foes

Now the teams are having a high-stakes rematch in the first round of the college football playoffs, where our predictive markets give Alabama a slight edge with a 53% chance to win the game. The winner of this game will move on to face top-seeded Indiana in the next round on New Year’s Day.

Predicting Miami vs Texas A&M 

Date:December 20th 

Location: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

Predict on Crypto.com:Miami vs Texas A&M

Miami is representing the Atlantic Coast Conference in the playoffs, despite not qualifying for the championship game. The Atlantic Coast Conference champion is Duke after a tiebreaker scenario had the team facing Virginia in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship. They did not automatically qualify for the playoffs because they carry an 8-5 record, while Miami snagged an at-large bid with a 10-2 record.

Two Teams That Were Left Out of Their Conference Championships

Texas A&M was dominant all season, going 11-0 leading into their final regular-season game against their in-state rival, Texas. However, Texas defeated them 27-17, which held them out of the Southeastern Conference Title game. Still, with an 11-1 record, they were able to secure an at-large bid and a home game in the first round. 

These two teams have only played each other five times before, with the most recent matchup being a 48-33 victory for Miami in the 2023 season. Our predictive markets give Texas A&M a 65% chance to win the game, with a 52% chance that there will be over 51.5 points scored in the matchup. The winner of this game will move to the next round, where they will face the 2-seed Ohio State on December 31st. 

Predicting Tulane vs. Ole Miss

Date: December 20th

Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi

Predict on Crypto.com:Tulane vs Ole Miss

Tulane and Ole Miss present one of the more peculiar matchups in the first round. Tulane won the AAC and is one of two group of five teams to punch their ticket to the playoffs as an automatic qualifier for winning their conference. Ole Miss is another at-large big from the Southeastern Conference after going 11-1 in the regular season. However, both teams will be without their regular-season head coach for this game.

Both Teams Are Caught Up In the Coaching Carousel

Due to the timing of National Signing Day and recruitment for next season, both programs have lost their head coaches to larger programs, despite competing for a championship. Tulane’s head coach, Jon Sumrall, is leaving the team next season for the vacant head coaching position at Florida, but he will still be coaching the team during the playoffs. Tulane promoted senior assistant Will Hall to be the new head coach next year. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin is leaving his team to fill the vacancy at LSU next season. Kiffin is allowing several of his assistants to guide Ole Miss through the playoffs while he prepares LSU for the upcoming season. Ole Miss has hired Pete Golding to be their new head coach. 

Although these programs are in a weird spot with their respective coaching staffs, they still have a lot on the line in this matchup. Furthermore, these two teams met earlier in the regular season, where Ole Miss dominated Tulane 45-10. Tulane is hoping to put the AAC on the map by becoming the first group of five team to win a college football playoff game, while Ole Miss is trying to set itself up for success under its new regime in a crowded Southeastern Conference conference. 

Odds Are Against The Group Of Five Qualifier

Our predictive markets expect this matchup to go similarly to their regular-season bout, giving Ole Miss a 90% chance to win and a 51% chance to cover a 17.5-point spread. If Ole Miss holds serve, or if Tulane pulls off an upset, the winner will face Southeastern Conference champion Georgia in the next round on January 1st. 

Predicting James Madison vs Oregon

Date: December 20th 

Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

Predict on Crypto.com:James Madison vs Oregon

The final matchup of the first round features James Madison University (JMU) making its first playoff appearance in school history, just three years after becoming an FBS program. Like Tulane, they are a group of five school that qualified by winning their conference and having a better record than Atlantic Coast Conference champion Duke. They will be taking on Oregon, the only Big Ten School without a first-round bye in the postseason. Although they went 11-1 this season, they took a back seat to Ohio State and Indiana, who both went undefeated in the regular season. 

JMU Has Their Hands Full In Their Program’s First Ever Playoff Game

The Sun Belt Conference champions JMU went 8-0 in conference play and 12-1 on the season, dropping only one game to Louisville in their second matchup of the season.  Down the stretch, they blew out many of their conference opponents and showed enough to give the committee a reason to allow them into the playoff field over larger programs like Notre Dame and BYU. Now they face their biggest test yet, by facing a strong Oregon team in the first round.

Oregon’s quarterback Dante Moore is projected to be an early pick in the NFL draft next year and has compiled 2,733 passing yards and 24 passing TDs with a 72.5 completion percentage this season. He’s regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, and now he has the opportunity to continue his dominant season at home in the first round of the playoffs. Head coach Dan Lanning has a 46-7 record in his first four seasons at Oregon, but has yet to claim a championship. 

Can Oregon Continue The Big Ten Conference’s Dominance?

As these two teams get set to square off, our predictive markets give Oregon a 96% chance to move onto the next round and a 52% chance to cover a 21.5-point spread. The winner of this matchup will take on the Big 12 champion Texas Tech in the second round of the playoffs on New Year’s Day. 

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