Consider how to trade event contracts on Crypto.com’s Predict platform. This guide walks you through trading sports, political and economic outcomes, with clear steps, examples and tools to help you make informed predictions.
This document is for informational purposes only and doesn’t constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. All trading involves risk and you could lose your entire investment. The products and platform discussed herein are offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse. Please see below for further disclosures.
Event contracts are financial instruments that enable traders to speculate or hedge on the outcomes of real world events without owning any underlying assets. They operate as a prediction market, where users can buy and sell positions based on whether they think specific events will occur or not.
The core mechanism is straightforward; you buy contracts that potentially profit based on whether a predicted outcome materializes.
For example, a contract might ask: ‘Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 Super Bowl?’
If you believe they will, you buy a ‘Yes’ position and if not, you buy a ‘No’ position. When the event concludes, correct positions typically pay $1 per contract, while losing positions expire worthless, with your profit or loss depending on the price you paid versus the final payout.
You can trade event contracts on our Predict platform.
Event contracts differ significantly from traditional derivatives like options or futures, which derive their value from the underlying financial assets such as stocks, commodities or currencies. Instead, event contracts derive value directly from the probability of specific occurrences, making them accessible to traders who want exposure to event outcomes without needing to own anything.
These contracts cover diverse categories including sports (for example, game winners or player statistics), politics (such as election results) and economics (inflation rates, employment figures, Federal Reserve rate decisions). You might also see contracts on entertainment, weather patterns and other measurable outcomes, as long as there is a single future event with a yes or no outcome attached to it.
Participating in event contracts can be straightforward , because you don't need to hold any underlying assets or manage margin requirements. You predict the likelihood of an event and trade accordingly.
This accessibility has made event contracts popular, because traders use them to diversify their trading and to try to monetize their knowledge of specific domains in a way that is not possible with other products.
Importantly, the pricing mechanism reflects information discovery, as contract prices can gravitate toward the market's perceived probability of each outcome occurring.
Event contracts can appeal to traders for many reasons, as they offer real world relevance – different from traditional derivatives:
You can learn how to trade on Crypto.com.
Trading event contracts on Crypto.com through our Predict platform is relatively straightforward, as after regulatory required onboarding, the platform integrates prediction markets directly into our established cryptocurrency exchange. This lets you predict the outcome of events.
Begin by downloading the Crypto.com App from the Apple App Store or Google Play Store and creating a free account. You’ll need to provide your email, create a strong password and complete identity verification checks (KYC).
This will involve providing a government issued ID (commonly a passport or driving licence), proof of address such as a bank statement and a selfie. Crypto.com prioritizes security with multi-factor authentication to protect your account.
Once your account is active, click on the main menu and locate ‘Predict’ in the drop down list. The feature may appear under trading tools, or as a separate section depending on the latest app update. All users must agree to additional terms and conditions in order to be approved for trading by CDNA.
Our Predict platform allows you to trade many different categories of live and upcoming events including sports, politics and economics. Sports events typically include major leagues like the NFL, the NBA and Premier League games, covering outcomes like match winners point spreads and player performance metrics.
Political markets might feature election results, policy decisions or approval ratings. Economic events often focus on Federal Reserve decisions, inflation releases or employment data. You can filter available event trades by category, and consider basic details like timing, current probabilities and trading volume.
After selecting an event, you'll see available contract options representing the different possible outcomes.
For a football game, for example, you might choose between ‘Green Bay Packers Win’ or ‘Kansas City Chiefs Win’. Each event will be clearly defined with specific terms and resolution criteria, ensuring there's no ambiguity about what constitutes a ‘Yes’ or a ‘No’ outcome.
Each contract displays the current market price, which fluctuates based on trading activity and reflects the market's perceived probability of that outcome.
Type in your desired trade size and our platform will automatically calculate your potential profit based on current market prices. For example, if you buy a ‘Yes’ contract at $0.65, you'll profit $0.35 if correct (assuming a $1 payout) minus fees. This is described s in depth below.
It’s important to review all trade details including the specific outcome, your trading amount, potential profit and total fees, before confirming.
Once you’ve executed your trade, you can monitor your position through Predict on the App, where you can view current market values and unrealized gains or losses. You can often manage your risk by exiting positions before the event’s resolution, by selling your contracts at current market prices, though this is not always possible.
After event resolution, winning contracts automatically pay out to your trading account, typically within a few hours of the official result. Payouts usually equal $1 per winning contract minus your original purchase price and fees.
These funds appear in your trading account balance and can be withdrawn and used for additional trades.
Event contracts typically work like this: the outcome is either ‘Yes’ (the event happens) or ‘No’ (it doesn’t).
Prices reflect the market’s collective view of the event’s likelihood. Typically, contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, with the price representing the implied probability. For example, if a ‘Yes’ contract is priced at $0.70, the market believes there’s a 70% chance of the event occurring. In this case, the corresponding ‘No’ contract would trade at about $0.30.
These prices fluctuate in real time based on new information, trading activity and market sentiment. In general:
Once you place a trade, you’ll see the cost, potential payout and your contracts will appear in your portfolio. After the event concludes, winning contracts pay $1 each, while losing contracts expire worthless.
Below are three practical examples of how this works in sports, politics and economics.
Question: ‘Will the Lakers win the Championship?’
Question: ‘Will Gavin Newsom be the Democrat’s 2028 Presidential nominee?’
Question: ‘Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at the next FOMC meeting?’
As with all trading products, event contracts come with their own set of advantages and drawbacks.
Check out OG.com for more prediction markets:
Pro Football Prediction Markets
Pro Basketball Prediction Markets
College Basketball Prediction Markets
Important information: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Event Contract markets are volatile and carry risk. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
