XRP price outlook: Can XRP recover by year end after ETF launch volatility?

Historic two weeks for XRP: Spot ETFs launch across major US exchanges

The US market has entered a pivotal phase for XRP, with multiple spot XRP ETFs launching in rapid succession throughout mid-November. It is one of the fastest institutional rollout the asset has seen to date.

The first to launch was Canary Capital’s XRP ETF (XRPC) on November 13, trading on Nasdaq. The debut broke 2025 ETF records with:

• $58.5 million first-day trading volume, the highest of any ETF this year
• Approximately $250 million first-day inflows
• $128 million cumulative volume within four days

This performance surpassed the strong debut of Solana’s spot ETFs earlier this year, which recorded about $57 million on launch day, making XRP the year’s strongest crypto ETF opener by volume.

Momentum continued with additional launches:

The largest entrant, Franklin Templeton’s EZRP, is scheduled to list on November 24 on NYSE Arca, following its Form 8-A filing on November 18 and updated S-1 submission earlier this month.

A key driver of this wave is the move by issuers to remove ‘delay clauses’ from S-1 filings, triggering an auto-effective 20-day window that allows ETFs to go live without explicit SEC approval — a mechanism previously used during the government shutdown.

How XRP’s price reacted (and why it didn’t rally)

Despite record-setting ETF inflows, XRP’s price movement has been mixed.

• Pre-launch (Nov 12): $2.39
• Launch day (Nov 13): Reached $2.38 but closed lower near $2.33
• Nov 14 to 17: Dropped to the $2.16 to $2.22 range
• Nov 19: Trading around $2.20 to $2.21

This muted reaction largely reflects broader market pressures rather than ETF-specific sentiment.

Key reasons for the price disconnect:

1. High Bitcoin correlation (0.85)

BTC’s decline below key levels triggered liquidations across altcoins, including XRP.

2. Whale selling pressure

Large-holder outflows offset institutional ETF buying.

3. ‘Sell-the-news’ behavior

XRP rallied 21% ahead of the launches, pricing in much of the optimism before listings went live.

4. Normal ETF adoption curve

Historical ETF trends — including  BTC and ETH — show institutional allocations typically build over weeks to months, not immediately at launch.

XRP price levels to watch: Updated resistance and support zones

XRP is now trading near the lower end of its short-term range, and the market is watching whether it can hold key support.

Resistance

• $2.40 to $2.70: Near-term resistance zone. Reclaiming this range could ease downward momentum.
• $2.75 to $3.00: Broader resistance cluster tied to pre-liquidation highs.

Support

• $2.15: The most critical support level. Analysts describe it as the ‘line in the sand’.
• $2.00: Psychological round-number support.
• $1.90 to $1.98: Major structural support from June 2025 lows.

Technical picture

• Death cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA, a historically bearish signal.
• Descending channel: XRP continues to trade within a downward-sloping channel.
• Bullish divergence: Early signs are forming, but confirmation requires higher lows and volume support.

ETF catalyst: Growing institutional access and liquidity

The launch of up to 11 spot XRP ETFs in a two-week window is a big step for institutional access.

ETF-related drivers include:

• Seed capital requirements creating structural demand for XRP.
• Large issuers involved, including Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, 21Shares, CoinShares and Grayscale.
• Regulated exposure for retirement accounts and advisory channels.
• Auto-effective filings enabling accelerated rollouts.

Major banks continue to monitor inflows closely. JPMorgan made an ambitious estimate that spot XRP ETFs could attract up to $8 billion in institutional inflows, potentially supporting a medium-term recovery if broader market conditions stabilize.

Macro and sentiment risks 

• Broader market weakness: Crypto has seen over $1 trillion erased from total market cap amid global risk-off sentiment.
• Bitcoin ETF outflows: Over $1.1B in weekly BTC ETF outflows have weighed on correlated assets like XRP.
• Geopolitical friction: US–China trade tensions continue to inject uncertainty.
• Government shutdown aftereffects: Regulatory operations remain strained.

Outlook: Three scenarios to watch

If you’re interested in the latest price movements of XRP, you can stay up to date on the Crypto.com price page or the App, which supports more than 400 cryptocurrencies including Solana. Users on the App can purchase XRP is a few simple steps:

1. Download the Crypto.com App, available on the Apple App Store and Google Play. 
2. Follow the on-screen instructions to complete the sign-up and identity verification process. 
3. Fund the account via bank transfer (this may take one to three days to clear) or through instant methods like prepaid/credit card or Apple Pay. The Crypto.com App supports more than 20 fiat currencies, including USD, EUR, and GBP.
4. Once the account is funded, users can purchase XRP and other cryptocurrencies directly through the App.

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