Bitcoin price is stuck around $60K. Is the mega AI IPO wave draining liquidity?

SpaceX's record IPO and the liquidity squeeze

Bitcoin's recent stagnation coincides with the largest IPO in stock market history. SpaceX priced its Nasdaq debut at $135 a share, implying a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation and a $75 billion raise, with SPCX trading beginning June 12. 

Demand reportedly topped $250 billion ahead of pricing — more than three times the offering size.

Anthropic followed suit and confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1 — and OpenAI on June 8 — setting up a potential combined $3.6 trillion wave of AI-linked public offerings within months of each other.

Against this, BTC has traded between roughly $61,000 and $63,000 in recent sessions, near the lower end of the $60,000 to $65,000 range that has defined its macro support. 

With institutional and crossover funds occupied with SpaceX's bookbuilding and positioning ahead of Anthropic and OpenAI's eventual debuts, spot demand has been drawn thin.

The post-IPO hangover precedent: Circle and Bullish

Recent history offers a glimpse to what may follow once IPO euphoria fades. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) went public on the NYSE on May 27, 2025, at $24 to $26 a share. The stock has since climbed to around $81, but its Q1 2026 results showed operating expenses jumping 76% year-over-year to $242 million, driven largely by post-IPO stock-based compensation — a reminder that public markets quickly price in real overhead once listing-day momentum fades.

Bullish (BLSH), the crypto exchange operator, raised $1.11 billion in its NYSE listing on August 12, 2025, at $37 a share. The stock recently traded in the $25 to $30 range, down roughly 27% from its IPO price, as trading volumes normalized.

What may happen when Anthropic and OpenAI go public

SpaceX posted a $4.28 billion net loss in Q1 2026, with its AI segment — built around the xAI merger completed in February — losing $2.47 billion on just $818 million in revenue against $7.7 billion in AI capex for the quarter. 

The filing also disclosed a $1.25 billion-per-month compute agreement between SpaceX and Anthropic, underscoring how intertwined these companies' infrastructure economics have become.

Should Anthropic and OpenAI follow a comparable path once listed, the pattern seen with Circle and Bullish — heavy capex, compressed margins, a re-rating from IPO-week multiples toward operational reality — gives some indication of what public market scrutiny of AI spending could look like.

Bitcoin's path to recovery: Scarcity vs. dilution

Public companies raising tens of billions for AI infrastructure must continually justify that spending to shareholders and absorb stock-based compensation costs — pressures that, as Circle and Bullish show, can weigh on share prices long after the IPO bell. 

BTC, on the other hand, carries no such overhead; its 21 million supply cap is fixed regardless of market conditions and it requires no earnings call to justify its existence.

Whether that contrast translates into renewed BTC demand once the AI listings settle is not something this piece can forecast and readers should treat it as a possibility.

Bitcoin price: Where analysts see the floor

BTC's current range near $61,000 to $63,000 sits roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. Near-term technical support sits around $60,000 to $60,500; a break below it has been flagged by analysts as an opening path toward $55,000 to $58,000, a potential 2026 cycle bottom.

On the upside, BTC has to consistently climb and stay above $70,000 to neutralize the bearish structure, which may eventually lead it back to May’s highs of $77,000 to $82,000. 

Others see the drawdown as comparatively shallow. The downside in this current bear cycle has been less severe than prior cycles: institutional buying from the likes of Strategy has been functioning as critical cushioning. 

If the current range indeed set the cycle low, the 50% retracement from the October 2025 peak would be significantly milder than BTC’s previous drawdowns: about 74% in 2022, 84% in 2018 and more than 90% in 2012. 

For now, $60,000 to $65,000 remains the level to watch. A sustained break below $60,000 would open the door to the lower targets cited above; a reclaim of $65,000 would suggest the range is holding as support.

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