Bitcoin's Friday the 13th: Why BTC dove to $68K and where it may end 2026

Superstitious traders may want to look away. Bitcoin (BTC) heads into Friday, November 13, trading near $68,700, down about 6% over 24 hours and at its lowest level since August. Ether (ETH) was also down about 6% to around $1,920.

The latest blow came from outside crypto. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned with immediate effect on Thursday, wiping as much as 14% off the world's most valuable chipmaker in early trading. 

BTC fell below $71,500 as the news spread, extending a slide that began after Tuesday's hotter-than-expected inflation data.

Why is Bitcoin falling?

These pressures are converging on BTC at once.

1. A leadership shock at the center of the AI trade

Bitcoin has been trading closely with tech stocks for most of the autumn and Nvidia is the stock at the heart of the AI rally. Thursday's sell-off hit the companies most dependent on AI spending hardest: Nebius fell 16.8% and Super Micro Computer 11.3%. 

Small caps also suffered, with the Russell 2000 down 1.64%. When investors cut exposure to the riskiest corners of the market, BTC tends to go with them.

2. Producer prices on Friday morning

Economists expect a 0.4% monthly rise and a 6.6% yearly gain, the biggest since November 2022, in the October producer price index release.

After Tuesday's CPI beat forecasts and Fed Governor Christopher Waller floated a half-point hike in December, a hot PPI may push those odds higher. A softer reading could take some heat off.

3. A $2.48 billion options expiry

About $2.48 billion worth of BTC options expire. The price at which the most contracts would expire worthless, known as max pain, sits at $76,000, well above where BTC is trading. With a put-to-call ratio of 0.52, most open positions are calls set up for higher prices and many of them may expire worthless. Expiries like this can add volatility in the hours before contracts settle.

4. Five straight days of ETF outflows

Institutional investors have been heading for the exit. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $299.9 million on November 11, their fifth straight day of net outflows, taking the streak's total to about $1.44 billion, according to SoSoValue data.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $269.7 million of that and has now seen nine straight sessions of withdrawals. Including the days before the streak began, net outflows for November have topped $1.9 billion.

The money isn't leaving the market altogether. US-listed equity ETFs took in roughly $12 billion a day over the same stretch, with funds tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 among the biggest winners. Stock investors are buying the dip; Bitcoin fund investors, so far, are not.

How does Bitcoin's drop compare with Nvidia and other stocks?

Over a single day, BTC held up better than Thursday's biggest losers. Nvidia closed down 4.34% at $166.19 after recovering from a 14% early plunge, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell only 0.35% and 0.39%.

Corteva lost 24.3% after weak quarterly revenue and Global Payments fell 12% after private equity buyers reportedly walked away from a takeover.

In comparison, BTC is down almost 15% over 30 days. Nvidia has fallen more than 30% from its October peak, which at one point erased around $2 trillion in market value. 

Not every chip stock lost out, though. AMD rose 5.86% and Broadcom 5.54% on Thursday as investors moved into Nvidia's rivals. Bitcoin had no such offset.

Why did Jensen Huang resign as Nvidia CEO?

Nvidia hasn't given a reason. In a statement on November 12, the company said Huang had stepped down as president, CEO and board member, ending a 33-year run at the company he co-founded. 

Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress will serve as interim CEO while keeping her CFO role, and Harvey C. Jones becomes the board's first chair. The board has started a search for a permanent successor.

"Our focus remains on serving our customers, partners, developers and shareholders," Kress said. Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on November 17, its first results without Huang.

Where could Bitcoin go next?

After PPI and Friday's expiry, the next dates are Nvidia's earnings and US retail sales on November 17, the Fed's October meeting minutes on November 18, and PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, on November 25. All of them land before the Fed's December 9 decision.

ETF demand is the other piece. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.48 billion over the six sessions starting November 2. A break in the outflow streak and a steady return of inflows may give the assurance that larger investors see value at these levels.

Can Bitcoin end 2026 in the green?

That would take a sharp turnaround. Bitcoin opened the year at about $87,497; it needs to climb roughly 23% in seven weeks just to break even. A finish below that would mean back-to-back yearly losses for the first time.

Big banks have already scaled back. Standard Chartered cut its end-2026 target to $100,000 from $150,000 and Bernstein lowered its year-end call to $125,000, pushing its $150,000 target to mid-2027.

Even those reduced targets imply gains of 40% or more from here. Prediction markets have been far more cautious, pricing a year-end close nearer $75,000 as of September.

For now, the gap between those forecasts and the market shows how much depends on the Fed. A pause in rate hikes may revive demand quickly. Another round of hot inflation data could keep BTC under pressure into 2027.

Bitcoin price: Levels to watch

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