Why Bitcoin price hit a three-month low. What could steady it before December's Fed meeting?

Bitcoin celebrated a Midterms-led rebound to $81,000 a week ago before hitting an intraday low of $72,787 on November 10, its lowest level since August.

About $632 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, $511 million of them from traders positioned for higher prices. Ether, XRP and Solana each fell close to 6%.

Inflation came in hot again

The trigger was October's consumer price index. Prices rose 0.4% for the month, above the 0.3% economists expected, though slower than September's 0.6%. 

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.

That was the second month in a row that core prices beat forecasts. Energy costs rose just 0.7% in October after jumping 5.2% in September, so the pressure is now coming from the rest of the economy rather than from oil.

This month's report also came without the usual year-on-year figure. Because of last year's government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected October 2025 prices, so it had no base to compare against.

Waller puts a half-point hike on the table

The CPI print came on the same morning as a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He said he would "still support a 25 basis point increase" at the December meeting; if October's core inflation ran "around 0.3 percent or even higher," a 50 basis point hike "should be considered." Anything smaller, he warned, "would put our credibility at risk," according to the Federal Reserve.

Core inflation came in at exactly that level. By mid-morning, CME FedWatch showed no chance of the Fed holding rates on December 9, an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 15% chance of a half-point move. The week before, a hold had been priced at more than 30%. Either hike would lift the Fed's benchmark rate from its current 3.75% to 4% range to at least 4% to 4.25%.

Bond markets moved with it. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% before closing around 4.88%. When safe government bonds pay close to 5%, assets with no yield, such as BTC and gold, have a harder time attracting money.

BTC is trading like a tech stock again

Bitcoin's slide came alongside a sell-off in the stocks that led this year's AI rally. Nvidia fell about 5.5% on Tuesday and is now more than 30% below its early-October high. Micron, Dell and Intel each lost 3% to 5%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.74%.

Gold didn't offer much shelter either, falling 1.84% to around $4,039 an ounce. When both gold and BTC fall alongside tech stocks, it points to investors cutting risk across the board.

Who's selling?

Institutional investors have been heading for the exit since the US Midterms. US spot BTC ETFs lost about $1.48 billion in net outflows over the six trading sessions starting November 2, almost all of it from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust.

The only day of inflows was November 4, when the funds took in $74.6 million during the post-election rebound. Another $201 million left on November 9.

BTC also slipped below about $76,000, the average price paid by short-term holders. Recent buyers are also sitting on losses, which may lead to more selling into any bounce.

What could steady Bitcoin before December 9

1. Producer prices (November 13): A second hot reading, after Tuesday's CPI, may push odds of a half-point hike higher. A soft one could ease some of the pressure.
2. Nvidia earnings and retail sales (November 17): Nvidia's results will test whether the AI sell-off has gone far enough. Retail sales will show how consumers are holding up under higher rates.
3. Fed minutes (November 18): The record of the October meeting, where two officials voted for a hike, may show how widely Waller's view is shared.
4. PCE inflation (November 25): The Fed's preferred inflation measure is the last major data point before the meeting.

A run of softer numbers could take the half-point hike off the table and give buyers room to step back in. Another hot reading may keep pressure on BTC through December.

Bitcoin price: Levels to watch

At the time of writing, prediction market platform OG.com shows a 31% likelihood that BTC price climbs above $75,000 by this Saturday, November 14. 79% think the BTC price will stay above $72,000, while 3% sees it breaking $80,000. 

Important information: This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to take cryptocurrency positions, consider your risk appetite. All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.

Past performance offers context but does not ensure future results. Investment outcomes are subject to market volatility, economic changes, and other unpredictable variables.