Trump–Xi meeting at APEC Summit: How will it impact the crypto market?

High stakes at the APEC Summit

When U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the APEC Summit in South Korea on October 31, markets will be watching beyond handshakes: Bitcoin’s next move.

After months of escalating rhetoric and tit-for-tat trade measures, the world’s two largest economies are poised for a high-stakes diplomatic encounter. For crypto traders, the meeting could mark an influential geopolitical event of Q4 2025, as sentiment across risk assets increasingly hinges on U.S.–China dynamics.

Bitcoin, hovering in the $108,000 to $110,000 range after recent volatility, remains tethered to macroeconomic signals. Its response to policy shifts, trade headlines, and global liquidity trends have shown high co-relation to that of equities and commodities.

The run-up to the first meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping since the 2024 U.S. presidential election

The lead-up has been volatile. On October 9, Beijing announced sweeping rare-earth export controls, covering 12 of 17 elements, with extraterritorial provisions and defense-use restrictions, tightening its grip over materials critical to chips and advanced manufacturing. 

The next day, Trump issued a 100% additional tariff threat on all Chinese imports to be effective November 1, later floating a 155% rate while also signaling new software export curbs. Markets slid, and he initially said there was “no reason” to meet Xi before reversing course.

Equities logged one of 2025’s worst sessions, and crypto endured its largest single-day liquidation on record (approximately $18 to $20B). BTC fell from highs near $126,000 to about $103,000; ETH and SOL also posted double-digit drops amid extreme fear and thin liquidity.

By October 16 to 20, the rhetoric softened: Trump called the 100% to 155% tariff “not sustainable,” confirmed the Xi meeting, and praised Xi’s leadership. He also inked a critical minerals deal with Australia to diversify away from Chinese supply. 

When Trump confirmed the October 31 sit-down on October 19, crypto snapped back. BTC went up by 2% to 3% to roughly $110,459 to $111,000; ETH and others followed. A notable whale put on $255M in BTC/ETH longs, then a $76.1M short, telegraphing expectations for volatility.

Scenario 1: Trade de-escalation sparks risk-on rally

If Trump and Xi manage to ease tensions — perhaps by signaling tariff rollbacks or committing to renewed trade negotiations — risk appetite could power back across global markets.

Coupled with prospects of a rate cut by the Fed, such a scenario would likely push BTC higher alongside equities, as investors price in reduced uncertainty and a potential rebound in global manufacturing and tech demand. 

Historical precedent supports this: prior episodes of U.S.–China détente have boosted both traditional and digital assets. The last U.S.-China trade dialogue in May 2025 saw BTC’s price increase to $105,720 from around $98,000, when both nations agreed to a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs.

A decisive tone of cooperation could even reignite talk of a new rally for the closing months of 2025, with BTC potentially testing prior highs if liquidity conditions remain favorable.

Scenario 2: Trade war escalation triggers market shock

Conversely, if the APEC meeting ends in confrontation — or if Trump reinstates aggressive tariffs — markets could tumble once again.

Although BTC is sometimes touted as a ‘digital gold’ or ‘safe haven’, crypto has repeatedly demonstrated its risk-asset behavior. Heightened geopolitical strain would likely strengthen the dollar, dampen risk sentiment and drive leveraged traders to unwind positions.

Bitcoin could retest early-October lows near $103,000 to $105,000, while altcoins may suffer steeper drawdowns. Analysts warn that another sharp liquidation event could emerge if tariffs or export bans are expanded, as cross-market funding stress spills over into crypto derivatives.

Scenario 3: No resolution, lingering volatility

A middle-ground scenario is one of ambiguous outcomes: polite dialogue without concrete policy movement.

Under this case, crypto markets could see temporary relief rallies followed by choppy, range-bound trading. The uncertainty could keep volatility elevated while suppressing conviction among institutional traders. Bitcoin might oscillate between $105,000 and $115,000 as markets await clearer direction on trade policy or macro data.

What to watch next

• Tariff clock: Any concrete language that suspends the November 1 tariff trigger.
• Rare earth carve-outs: Signals on supply-chain exemptions or licensing that ease pressure on semis and defense.
• Tone and guidance: Market participants can watch for post-meeting remarks from both sides, U.S.–Australia minerals follow-throughs and any reference to further bilateral visits.
• Flows and leverage: Whale positioning has turned opportunistic. Traders and strategists may monitor perp funding, open interests and basis for signs of one-sided risk.

Important information: ​​This is informational content sponsored by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to trade cryptocurrencies, consider your risk appetite.