Bitcoin bear market: All the ‘where’s the bottom’ levels, mapped out

Why ‘calling the bottom’ may miss the point

In bear markets, bottoms tend to form through ranges, retests and time instead of a singular print, as selling pressure gradually exhausts itself. 

Bitcoin’s current drawdown — roughly 46% to 50% from its October 2025 high near $126,000 — already places it within historical bear-market norms, but not yet at the extreme end seen in past cycles.

That context has shifted the debate away from pinpointing a low and toward mapping where downside risk clusters.

The macro backdrop contributing to downside risk

Monetary policy and liquidity

Tighter financial conditions remain a headwind. Elevated interest rates, reduced liquidity and uncertainty around a new Fed chair have weighed on risk assets broadly, limiting Bitcoin’s ability to recover momentum even after sharp selloffs.

Risk-off spillovers from other markets

Bitcoin’s decline has coincided with weakness across equities and commodities, reinforcing that the current move is not crypto-specific. In prior cycles, such cross-asset deleveraging phases tended to push Bitcoin toward longer-term structural supports before a durable base formed.

What history says about Bitcoin bear markets

How deep past cycles have fallen

Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have produced drawdowns ranging from 50% to more than 80% from peak to trough. While each cycle differs, most have eventually tested or undercut long-term reference points such as the 200-week moving average and realized price.

During the late-2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell roughly 77% from its November 2021 peak near $69,000 to a trough around $15,500, following a sequence of crypto-specific collapses. That decline ultimately carried BTC below both its realized price and the 200-week moving average, levels that have historically marked late-stage bear-market conditions.

Earlier cycles show similar behavior, even if the triggers differed. In 2018, Bitcoin declined about 84% from peak to trough, while the 2020 COVID shock briefly pushed BTC below its long-term cost basis before a rapid recovery. 

What’s different this time

While Bitcoin’s current drawdown fits historical bear-market patterns in magnitude, some analysts argue the drivers are structurally different from prior downturns. In a recent note, Bernstein Research said the selloff lacks the defining features of the late-2022 bear market, when exchange collapses, balance-sheet failures and contagion from overleveraged platforms amplified losses.

This time, Bernstein noted, there have been no major exchange failures or systemic credit events. Instead, the pressure reflects a broader crisis of confidence tied to macro conditions, including tighter financial policy and risk aversion across global markets. On that basis, Bernstein said it continues to view Bitcoin’s long-term thesis as intact, reaffirming a $150,000 price target by year-end, even as near-term volatility persists.

The bear market downside bands analysts are watching

On-chain data suggests long-term holder selling has peaked, a pattern associated with late-stage bear markets. At the same time, declining miner hash rates and extreme sentiment readings point to stress, but not yet resolution.

Bitcoin’s bear market can be better understood by identifying where demand has historically emerged and how macro forces could push price between those bands. 

For now, the $58,000 to $60,000 zone remains the most widely watched anchor. But the path there and beyond is likely to be uneven.

Important information: ​​This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to trade cryptocurrencies, consider your risk appetite.  All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.