Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [July 2025]
Crypto and Equities increased in July, while Real Assets and Fixed Income performances were mixed. UK reduced interest rates; Australia, Canada, China, Eurozone, Japan, New Zealand, and the US kept interest rates unchanged.
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Executive Summary
- Crypto and Equities increased in July, while Real Assets and Fixed Income performances were mixed. ETH led the increase while BTC reached a new all-time high above $122,000 in mid-July.
- UK reduced interest rates; Australia, Canada, China, Eurozone, Japan, New Zealand, and the US kept interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell mentioned that the committee is waiting to see the tariffs’ impacts on inflation and economic activities before considering policy adjustments. US President Donald Trump modified tariffs to dozens of countries, ranging from 10% to 41%, which are expected to start from 7 August. US Consumer Price Index showed inflation accelerating to 2.7% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly increase, inline with expectations.
- Cryptocurrency market cap surpassed $4 trillion for the first time in mid-July, which coincided with the US House of Representatives passing three crypto legislations. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $122,000 on 14 July. Prices dipped towards the end of the month, which coincided with US modifying trade tariffs, and weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, sparking fears of a potential recession.
- Key macro events in August include interest rate decisions from Australia, China, New Zealand, and the UK.
- BTC’s one-month performance correlation was positive with most Equity indices, but negative with Real Assets and Fixed Income.
- US spot BTC ETFs saw $6.0 billion in net inflows in July, signalling the fourth consecutive month of net inflows. The ETFs recorded back-to-back daily inflows exceeding $1 billion for the first time on 10 and 11 July.
- Market-Neutral Pair Trader hunts for strongly correlated tokens and potential market-neutral pair trades. ARB/OP (0.91) showed the strongest price performance correlation, followed by DOT/ATOM (0.87).
- For the BTC vs. ETH pair, the price ratio (BTC price divided by ETH price) dropped from +1 standard deviation (SD) to below the mean level in July, as ETH gained more interest from institutions.
- Our style-factor screens track momentum, value, growth, and risk for the Layer-1 and Layer-2, DeFi, Gaming, and NFT categories. Below is the screen for selected top crypto tokens by market cap in the Layer-1 and Layer-2 category. All the Layer-1 and Layer-2 token prices rallied in July, and CRO (+79.2%) led the surge.
- Our events section shows recent and upcoming events for selected tokens, as well as important macroeconomic events.
| Token | 1M Price Change | Events |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 8.71% | US spot BTC ETFs saw $6.0 billion in net inflows in July. BTC reached a new all-time high above $122,000 in mid-July. |
| Ether (ETH) | 52.13% | US spot ETH ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net inflows in July. The total value of ether treasuries held by companies (public and private) and crypto protocols reached nearly $10 billion. Ethereum Foundation outlined a one-year roadmap to integrate ZK proofs into its L1 blockchain. |
| Cronos (CRO) | 69.81% | Truth Social filed an S-1 with the US SEC to launch the Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF to track a basket of top crypto assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, CRO, and XRP. The US SEC also accepted Trump Media’s application for a bitcoin and ether ETF. Crypto.com and its affiliates will be the liquidity providers and custodians of the ETF. |
| XRP (XRP) | 34.82% | XRP’s price set a new all-time high on 18 July, finally topping a seven-year record. Ripple Labs is applying for a US banking license with the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), following a similar move by Circle Internet Group. |
| Solana (SOL) | 11.11% | Rex Shares and Osprey Funds launched REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (SSK) on the Cboe Exchange, the first crypto staking ETF in the US providing indirect crypto exposure while allowing investors to earn staking yield. Solana unveiled a roadmap aiming to be the foundational layer for global internet capital markets (ICM) by 2027. Additionally, companies eg. Upexi and DeFi Development Corp increased their SOL treasury holdings in the month. |
| Jupiter (JUP) | 4.89% | Jupiter announced that Jupnet, an omnichain network aiming to aggregate liquidity from multiple chains, is expected to launch its private and public testnet in Q3 and Q4, respectively. |
| Celestia (TIA) | 20.86% | The Celestia Foundation announced that it has purchased 43,451,616.09 TIA from Polychain Capital for $62.5 million to “assign Polychain’s entire remaining TIA holdings to new investors”. To settle the purchase, Polychain will be undelegating its staked TIA holdings. These transactions will use a rolling unlock schedule from August to November. |
Read the full Alpha Navigator report: Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [July 2025]
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