Can Bitcoin break $100K by February despite the Fed’s rate hold expectations?
Bitcoin is testing key resistance near $100K as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Here’s what macro signals and technical levels could mean for BTC going into February.
Nic Tse
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin has climbed to a two-month high of around $96,000, breaking above a key resistance zone as broader crypto sentiment improves.
- Markets are widely pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hold, shifting focus from policy moves to guidance and risk appetite.
- Stabilizing ETF flows and reduced leverage suggest the recent rally is structurally healthier than past spikes.
- Whether BTC can reclaim $100,000 by February may hinge on holding recent support and avoiding a hawkish macro surprise.
Bitcoin's recent rally has brought a familiar milestone back into focus. After climbing to around $97,000, its highest level in roughly two months, BTC is once again within striking distance of $100,000 — even as the Federal Reserve shows little urgency to ease policy further.
The move coincided with a broader rebound across digital assets — especially in the privacy and AI segments of altcoins — lifting total crypto market capitalization back above $3 trillion and easing extreme fear that dominated sentiment late last year.
Fed policy: What’s priced in and what isn’t
The upcoming January FOMC meeting is widely expected to result in no change to the benchmark federal funds rate, which currently sits at 3.5% to 3.75%. Prediction markets and futures pricing assign roughly 95% to 96% odds to a hold, suggesting the decision itself is largely priced in.
Where uncertainty remains is in forward guidance. Markets are still debating whether the Fed will maintain its ‘higher for longer’ posture or subtly open the door to potential rate cuts later in 2026 if inflation continues to moderate and growth cools.
Even a mild acknowledgment of downside economic risks could influence risk assets more than the headline decision.
BTC technical levels and post-FOMC price scenarios
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $94,500 is now critical. That level has flipped from resistance to support and serves as the foundation for any continued upside.
Scenario | Description |
Bullish | A neutral Fed tone, combined with steady or improving spot ETF inflows, could allow BTC to grind higher toward the $98,000 to $100,000 zone. A clean break above $100K would likely require confirmation via sustained volume. |
Base case | BTC consolidates between $94,500 and $100,000, digesting recent gains as markets await clearer macro or institutional catalysts heading into February. |
Bearish | A hawkish tilt — for example, renewed emphasis on inflation risks or resistance to discussing future cuts — could pressure risk assets broadly. In that case, BTC could retest $92,000 to $90,000, where buyers previously emerged. |
What could tip the scales
Beyond the Fed, global and macroeconomic factors could influence Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Signs of de-escalating global tensions, renewed stability in equity markets or large technology firms expanding digital asset treasuries would likely support risk appetite.
On the crypto side, continued normalization of ETF flows and restrained leverage remain constructive signals.
Conversely, persistent risk aversion or tightening global liquidity conditions would, once more, test Bitcoin’s resilience.
For now, BTC sits at a pivotal juncture. The setup for a February challenge of $100,000 remains intact, but confirmation may come from macro follow-through rather than monetary policy alone.
Important information: This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to trade cryptocurrencies, consider your risk appetite. All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.
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