What will Bitcoin’s price be by year-end 2025? Big banks and crypto bulls have spoken.

Where Bitcoin stands going into year-end 

After a rollercoaster year that saw Bitcoin punch through $100,000 and then sell off sharply from an all-time high above $126,000, BTC is now trading in the high-$80,000 to low-$90,000 range, down roughly a quarter from its peak.

The October liquidation shock — triggered by new US tariff headlines and a broader risk-off move in tech and AI stocks — wiped out billions in leveraged positions and cooled what had been a euphoric ETF-driven rally.

Hopes that monetary easing would quickly stabilise markets have so far gone unmet. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut announced on December 10 was largely treated as a ‘sell the news’ event, with risk assets failing to find immediate support. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has slipped to just below $86,000, marking its lowest level of the year and leaving it down roughly a third from its peak.

Against that backdrop, many forecasters have trimmed their near-term numbers without abandoning the longer-term Bitcoin story. 

Big-bank base cases: Standard Chartered, JPMorgan and others

Standard Chartered: From $200K down to $100K

Standard Chartered has been one of the most active large banks in publishing explicit Bitcoin targets. Earlier in 2025 it floated a path to $135,000 by Q3 and $200,000 by year-end, driven by ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption.

After the October drawdown and slowing ETF flows, the bank cut its end-2025 forecast to $100,000, saying the cycle is likely to top lower and later than first expected and pushing its long-term $500,000 target back from 2028 to 2030.

In other words, Stanchart is still structurally bullish, but it is now positioning $100K as a more cautious base case for where BTC could settle by year end.

JPMorgan: 6 to 12-month upside toward $150K to $170K

JPMorgan’s latest projections compares Bitcoin to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis and uses mining cost estimates (~$94,000) as a rough floor. From there, the bank models potential upside to around $170,000 over the next 6 to 12 months, roughly 80% to 85% above current price levels.

Bernstein, VanEck, Morgan Creek: The wider institutional range

A number of institutional research houses have also floated explicit or implied 2025 peaks:

• Bernstein projects Bitcoin could reach around $200,000 by the end of 2025, as part of a broader outlook that sees the current bull market potentially extending through 2027.
• VanEck maintains a $180,000 Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025, citing strong institutional demand and a maturing ETF market.

Crypto-native bulls: Tom Lee, Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood and more

While banks have nudged expectations lower, several well-known crypto advocates are still holding the line on far more aggressive targets.

Tom Lee (Fundstrat): $200K to $250K

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee still argues that Bitcoin could end 2025 in a $150,000 to $200,000 range, describing a $200,000 year-end target as achievable if policy, ETF flows and market sentiment remain supportive.

His thesis leans on:

• Post-halving supply dynamics.
• Rising institutional and ETF adoption.
• A supportive U.S. policy backdrop.

In most market commentary, Lee’s forecast tends to be treated as a high-beta bull case rather than consensus.

Cathie Wood (ARK Invest): $120,000 by end-2025

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, projects Bitcoin could reach around $120,000 by the end of 2025, as part of a longer-term adoption curve that places BTC at $1 million by 2030 in ARK’s models. The 2025 figure reflects her view that institutional inflows, ETF accessibility and global monetary dynamics could steadily push Bitcoin into low six-figure territory over the next year.

Michael Saylor and Robert Kiyosaki: $150K to $200K

Strategy’s Michael Saylor has publicly pointed to around $150,000 per BTC by the end of 2025, often framed as “roughly a doubling” from levels near $110K to $115K when he spoke.

Author and investor Robert Kiyosaki has echoed a $200,000 end-2025 possibility, positioning it as part of his broader argument for owning hard assets during periods of monetary and geopolitical uncertainty.

Arthur Hayes: $200K to $250K

Arthur Hayes, former exchange CEO and active macro commentator, has stuck with a $200,000 to $250,000 year-end 2025 band, even after the October crash and subsequent ETF outflows.

He characterises the autumn sell-off as a liquidity shock rather than the end of the cycle, arguing that a renewed upswing in global dollar liquidity could pull BTC sharply higher once again.

Factors that would support (or go against) these BTC price projections

Across forecasts, a few common themes keep coming up in explanations, whether bullish or cautious.

This forms part of our ongoing coverage of how macro forces and protocol-level changes are shaping crypto markets.

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Important information: ​​This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to trade cryptocurrencies, consider your risk appetite.  All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.