Quick Take

• Bitcoin miner profitability dropped to record lows of US$0.027 per TH/s.
• U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $319 million last week, lower than the $1.7 billion outflow the week prior. Spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $15 million in the same period, compared to a $174 million outflow the week prior.
• The U.S. stock market experienced a volatile but ultimately positive week, culminating in a powerful relief rally. After mid-week pressure, equities rebounded sharply following major geopolitical breakthroughs and a historic corporate milestone. A draft U.S.-Iran peace agreement eased energy-driven inflation fears, while SpaceX’s blockbuster public market debut injected a wave of optimism into risk assets, helping major indices erase earlier losses and finish the week in the green.
• • Nasdaq Composite increased +0.70%, rescued by a late-week chip rally. S&P 500 grew +0.65%, reversing sharp mid-week losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +0.66%.
  • Key Market Drivers: 
  • • U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Breakthrough: A draft U.S.-Iran memorandum, signaling canceled strikes and imminent sanctions lifts, triggered global risk-on buying.
    • Plunging Energy Prices: WTI crude dropped 6.25% to $84.88 per barrel as supply risks faded, cooling inflation and interest rate hike fears.
    • SpaceX’s Blockbuster IPO: SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq, pricing its offering at $135 per share to raise $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. Shares surged around 19% on day one, driving significant market momentum.
    • Macro Sentiment and Central Bank Watch: Consumer sentiment rebounded and inflation outlooks softened as investors positioned for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
  • Sector and Style Dynamics: Basic Materials (+2.91%) and Consumer Defensives (+2.53%) led gains on industrial optimism. Conversely, Communication Services (-0.68%) and Energy (-0.01%) lagged, with the latter hurt by falling crude prices. In Tech, AI semiconductors surged, led by KLA (+31.90%), SanDisk (+26.98%), and Intel (+25.61%). However, enterprise software weighed on the sector, with Adobe dropping -18.85% amid executive turnover and Oracle declining -13.83%.

Research Dashboard

According to our research dashboard, the price index grew +2.85%, while the volume and volatility indices plunged by -44.49% and -27.61%, respectively, last week.

Tokens showed mixed performance. BTC and ETH prices increased by +3.96% and +2.28%, respectively. TAO led the price surge, while TON, ZEC, and ONDO led the volume and volatility decline.

Capitalizing on market panic surrounding centralized AI restrictions (Anthropic suspended its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models following a U.S. government directive), Bittensor (TAO) bounced over 20%. The TON community passed a vote to rebrand its native token from Toncoin (TON) to Gram. Shielded Labs initiated an AI code audit using Anthropic's Claude (Mythos model) to evaluate Zcash (ZEC)'s privacy architecture. No new critical flaws or bugs were found following prior remediations to its privacy pools.

Chart of the Week

Bitcoin miner profitability dropped to record lows, with the estimated daily return for 1 Terahash (also known as hashprice, a measurement used to gauge the processing power of an individual ASIC, meaning 1 trillion calculations per second) of hashing power falling to $0.027 per TH/s, down from $0.039 per TH/s a month prior. This decline coincides with Bitcoin struggling to maintain support near the $60,000 level, raising concerns about potential sell pressure given that miners and mining pools collectively hold over $110 billion in BTC. Additionally, the top three mining pools (Foundry USA, AntPool, and F2Pool) now control over 55% of the hashrate.

Weekly Performance

Most of the top-cap tokens saw bullish price action last week, with ATOM (+17.2%) leading the increase and BCH (-8.7%) leading the drop.

Most categories saw a growth in market capitalization (MC), with AI and Lending leading the increase.

Notable Updates

News Highlights

Company News

• OG, Crypto.com’s global predictions market experience, announced its launch in New York with newly signed brand ambassador New York Knicks star, OG Anunoby.
• FanDuel Predicts announced a strategic expansion of its event contract offerings through a partnership with Crypto.com and its CFTC-regulated subsidiary, OG. This collaboration integrates new sports and entertainment markets, including combination event contracts, alongside FanDuel’s existing partnerships with CME Group. The expansion was timed to coincide with the start of the 2026 World Cup, aiming to provide a more diverse selection of prediction markets to users across all 50 U.S. states.
• Crypto.com launched Tokenized Stocks in the App, enabling users to trade and hold digital representations of Wall Street equities around the clock with a $1 minimum investment.

Regulation

• The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) floated a consultation to permit retail-focused UCITS funds to hold up to 10% of their portfolios in crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs). This shift would broaden mainstream retail exposure to digital assets through highly regulated traditional investment vehicles.
• The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its first proposed rule specifically governing prediction markets, establishing a framework to determine which event-based contracts serve the "public interest." Chairman Mike Selig positioned the proposal as a way to balance market integrity with innovation, aiming to provide a durable and transparent process for evaluating contracts related to sensitive topics like war, terrorism, and illegal activities.

Adoption

• Citi launched a blockchain-powered marketplace for trading private company shares, aiming to bring transparency, liquidity, and streamlined settlement to traditionally opaque and illiquid private markets.
• Singapore’s DBS Bank announced plans to offer tokenized gold products directly to its retail customers, providing an efficient, blockchain-based avenue for everyday users to access secure real-world assets (RWAs).
• Japan’s SBI Shinsei Bank introduced a program offering cryptocurrency vouchers — redeemable for BTC, ETH, or XRP via SBI VC Trade — equivalent to 20% of users’ fiat interest payments.
• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Sumitomo ⁠Mitsui Financial Group (SMBC), and Mizuho Financial Group announced plans to jointly issue a yen-denominated stablecoin by March 2027. They will form a council to develop the operational framework, with the banks acting as joint settlors and a trust bank serving as trustee. This initiative received preliminary support from Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) and aligns with recent statements from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) advocating for greater use of yen-based stablecoins.

Investment Vehicles

• BlackRock filed to launch a novel Bitcoin Income ETF, expected to debut this week. This sophisticated product moves beyond basic spot-price tracking, utilizing strategies like covered calls to generate ongoing yield for traditional, income-focused investors.

Catalyst Calendar

Recent Research Reports

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