Welcome to the Crypto.com Monthly Research Roundup Newsletter

1. Research Dashboard

According to our research dashboard, 215 public companies collectively acquired over 1.2 million BTC (approximately US$104 billion) as of September 13, representing over 6% of Bitcoin's total supply.

In September, the price and volume indices grew +8.99%, +18.88%, respectively, while the volatility index dropped -1.35%.

2. Charts of the Month

Trading volume for real-world asset (RWA) perps fell to approximately $18.1 billion in the week of September 21, marking its lowest level since February 2026. Foreign exchange (FX) experienced the sharpest week-over-week decline at -60.7%, followed by commodities (-19.8%), while equities saw a modest contraction of -3.5%.

The pullback stems from a combination of factors in a highly theme-driven market. Volume spiked sequentially across gold, silver, oil, SpaceX, and AI/memory-chip equities. July’s volume surge was predominantly fueled by equities, while August maintained elevated activity before entering a consolidation phase. Lacking a  high-volatility narrative to follow the AI-equity trade, speculative turnover has steadily unwound. Furthermore, the market also faced macro headwinds following the Fed’s hawkish decision. Ten-year Treasury yields moved above 5% during the following week, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. These conditions likely reduced appetite for leveraged cross-asset exposure, particularly FX and precious-metals perps.

On September 30, the seven-day rolling count of altcoin exchange deposit transactions reached 78,181, a 146% surge from roughly 31,720 on September 16. This marked its highest level since October 2025, signaling potential sell-side pressure. Over the same two-week period, the number of unique addresses depositing altcoins nearly tripled, growing from around 17,300 to 50,000. 

The spike followed early signs of altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin, potentially signaling rising profit-taking or distribution risk among altcoin holders. Altcoins subsequently pulled back late in the week amid elevated Treasury yields, renewed inflation concerns, and broader profit-taking.

3. Monthly Feature Articles

Pricing AI's Progress: From Frontier Milestones to Economic Adoption

AI prediction markets are emerging as key information hubs, with combined volume hitting US$162.84 million and platform volume surging 279% between September and January 2026. Trading focuses heavily on technical milestones over adoption: capability and rankings comprise 56.6% of volume, while product and operational metrics account for 20.7%.

This imbalance creates an adoption gap where top-performing models may lack widespread enterprise use, revenue, or sustained economic value. While current adoption contracts offer useful signals, they remain fragmented across varied data sources and rules. To address this, Crypto.‌com and PYMNTS proposed the AI Prediction Market as a demand-side complement.

Key Takeaways:

• AI prediction markets are becoming an information layer for the AI economy. Combined notional volume across major platforms reached US$162.84 million, while accompanying market volume grew 279% between August and January 2026.
• The market prices technical milestones over AI diffusion. Capability, rankings, and frontier-intelligence contracts account for 56.6% of classified volume, followed by product releases and operating performance at 20.7%, corporate finance at 11.1%, and adoption, usage, and competitive positioning at 5.9%.
• This concentration creates an adoption gap: a model can top leaderboards, launch products, or achieve benchmarks without demonstrating broad usage, enterprise deployment, revenue, productivity gains, or durable economic value.
• Existing adoption-related contracts provide useful signals, such as usage, spending, requests, sign-ups, market share, and sector adoption, but remain fragmented and rely on different definitions, samples, data providers, and settlement rules.
• The AI Prediction Market proposed by OG.com and PYMNTS is designed as a demand-side complement. 
• • It converts recurring data from approximately 4,000 U.S. adults, 500 U.S. enterprise decision-makers, and public company disclosures into clearly defined, tradable contracts.
  • Its value lies not in replacing conventional AI benchmarks or prediction markets, but in connecting what AI systems can do, what organizations deploy, and what economic outcomes companies disclose. Pre-registered definitions, dual reviews, and documented settlement procedures can improve comparability, though self-reporting bias, panel selection, denominator changes, threshold cliffs, liquidity, and settlement concentration remain risks.
• OG.com’s Alpha AI co-pilot adds a separate user-facing research layer, enabling traders to analyze markets, and build parlays within a single conversation. While Alpha aids analysis, it does not replace contract rules, settlement sources, risk disclosures, or the exchange’s final determinations.

Monthly Market Update (September 2026)

This report provides an overview of September market updates, key developments, and the latest outlook.

Key Takeaways:

• Overall Market Performance: In September 2026, digital assets posted steady gains, with Bitcoin up 6.4%, Ethereum up 8.8%, and Solana rising 14.6%. U.S. equity performance was mixed as the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.3%. Gold and Real Estate also declined by 6.8% and 3.4%, respectively.
• G20 Macro Environment: Central banks turned cautious and policy paths diverged amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank held a watchful stance, while the Bank of Japan faced pressure to normalize interest rates. Emerging market policies diverged according to inflation and commodity exposure.
• Crypto Market Dynamics: All DeFi categories grew in September, led by AI token market capitalization growth (+86.4%). U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded US$2.65 billion in net inflows, while spot ETH ETFs logged $832 million in net inflows.
• Crypto Regulatory Developments: Regulatory activity remained active across regions. The U.S. CFTC proposed event contract rules, while the SEC proposed crypto custody rules and granted a temporary exemption for tokenized security venues. The UK FCA opened applications for its new crypto regime, Germany proposed taxing crypto gains as stocks, and South Korea set its tokenized securities market launch.
• Equity Market Trends: U.S. equities faced monthly pressure despite strong mega-cap technology and AI chip performance. European markets posted their first monthly decline in six months amid rising yields and oil-driven inflation fears. Asian markets diverged as Japan and South Korea gained on AI chip demand, while China, Hong Kong, and India fell.
• New Developments in Crypto and TradFi: OG.com filed with the CFTC for equity perpetual futures and partnered with Robinhood on prediction market clearing. Circle launched the Arc Layer-1 (L1) blockchain, Morgan Stanley established a Digital Asset Lab, a 21-bank consortium announced plans for a USD-backed stablecoin, and Standard Chartered launched spot crypto trading in the UAE.
• Outlook on Key Projects: Bitcoin saw prolonged onchain profitability as Bitcoin Core 32.0 entered final testing. Ethereum scheduled its Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet and announced EIP-8141 for stablecoin gas payments. Solana began testing its Alpenglow upgrade, Zcash targeted a November upgrade, and multiple major projects scheduled token unlocks.

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4. Economic Calendar

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