Bitcoin price: Why did gold jump above $4,400 and BTC's still stuck at $64,000 as ceasefire expires

The 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran expired Monday with no extension in place and no permanent deal in sight. 

Gold responded the way a safe-haven asset usually would, breaking above $4,400 an ounce and touching a two-month high near $4,449. BTC decoupled and stayed flat at $64,000, which is where it's held for much of the past two weeks, geopolitical headline or not.

The end of the 60-day ceasefire deal

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed June 17, gave the US and Iran 60 days to negotiate a permanent end to their conflict. That window closed on Monday. The Iranian foreign ministry argued that the MOU had only declared an end to active fighting, not set a negotiating clock. US president Donald Trump, in a Fox News interview, told Iran it "should put up the white flag of surrender," adding, "I have no time schedule. I'm not in a hurry."

Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains the central sticking point. Iran reclosed the waterway earlier this year after accusing the US of trying to establish an alternate shipping route; Washington responded by reinstating its naval blockade, which Trump has taken to calling a "wall of steel." 

Roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supply moves through the strait and neither side has shown willingness to back down. The conflict, now approaching six months old, has kept energy costs elevated and become a political liability for Trump ahead of November's midterms, where control of the Senate is at stake.

Gold's record run

Gold climbed about 10% through August. A weak July jobs report knocked the market's projection of a September Fed rate hike down to just 32.5%, according to CME FedWatch data — the lowest reading since the current tightening cycle began. A softer dollar and the geopolitical conflict have added further support.

Central banks have been the more durable source of demand. They bought a record 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, according to data cited by Reuters — buying that's largely insensitive to short-term rate moves or investor sentiment. 

Retail and institutional ETF demand followed: global gold-backed funds added $3 billion in July alone, reversing two months of outflows and lifting holdings to 4,068 tonnes, just short of February's all-time high. 

UBS has set a $5,200 target for gold by mid-2027; Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 by year-end.

Why Bitcoin isn't following gold's lead

BTC’s muted reaction, as opposed to gold, comes down to crypto-specific pressures.

Spot BTC ETFs lost $389.7 million in the week of August 10 to 14, one of the highest weekly outflows in weeks, reversing a strong start to the month that had brought in $853.5 million the week before. 

Flows turned positive again on August 17, with $137 million in net inflows.

Regulatory optimism has also deteriorated. Galaxy Digital cut the likelihood of the CLARITY Act’s passing in 2026 to about 10% on August 14, down from 75% in May. Prediction markets aren't far off, pricing the odds around 17%. The bill's fate now rests on a cloture vote scheduled for September 15, once the Senate returns from recess.

BTC also faces competition for capital that gold doesn't. K33 Research pointed out that the opportunity cost of holding BTC is too high for some allocators right now, given how strongly AI-linked equities have performed by comparison. 

Hashdex closed its US spot BTC ETF, the smallest of the thirteen listed funds by assets, but the first closure of its kind since spot BTC products launched in January 2024.

Bitcoin price: Technical levels

Gold's rally is tied to a mix of durable, price-insensitive demand from central banks and fading rate-hike odds that also apply to crypto. 

Despite expectations of another delay, the September 15 CLARITY Act vote may likely pose as the next big catalyst for BTC to potentially break the $63,000 to $64,000 lull. In the nearer term, the CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting steps in to fill the void left behind by the missed CLARITY Act vote. 

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