Why Bitcoin fell below $82K: What bank earnings and CPI could do next

To start the week, Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $84,254 on Monday before sliding about 2.2% to around $81,780. The fall triggered $488.6 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with about 118,000 traders caught. Ether (ETH) led all assets with $115 million in liquidations, ahead of BTC at $107 million.

It was the second flush in a week. Last Thursday, BTC briefly dropped to around $80,400, its lowest point since the late-September rally stalled, as more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out.

The oil-rigins of the damage

Brent crude climbed to $107.25 a barrel on Monday, its highest level since September 16, while US crude topped $94. The Ukraine-Russia conflict escalated despite talk of an ‘energy ceasefire’ and a tanker fire was reported in the Strait of Hormuz.

Expensive oil feeds straight into inflation and inflation is what the Federal Reserve is fighting. BTC rallied to $87,000 in late September partly on hopes that the Fed was close to done raising rates. Each jump in energy prices chips away at that view.

Institutions had already pulled back

The selling on Monday happened just when the market had already lost much of its institutional support the week before. US spot BTC ETFs saw $678.9 million in net outflows between October 5 and 9, according to Farside Investors, reversing the $241 million they took in the week before. Spot ETH funds lost another $542.2 million, taking the combined total to $1.22 billion.

The worst day was October 7, when BTC funds shed $484.9 million, their largest single-day outflow since June. Glassnode noted in its October 12 weekly update that ETF flows had swung from $118 million in inflows to $702 million in outflows week on week. 

What bank earnings and CPI could do next

1. Bank earnings (13 October 2026)

JPMorgan reports Q3 today, followed by Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Analysts expect JPMorgan to earn roughly $5.82 to $5.91 per share, up from $5.07 a year earlier. 

The numbers may not see an immediate impact on BTC, but they are the first hard read on how the US economy and Wall Street's trading desks handled a quarter of rising rates and $100 oil. 

Strong results and upbeat guidance may support risk appetite. Warnings about consumers, credit or loan demand would do the opposite.

2. September CPI (14 October 2026)

This is the bigger test. Economists expect headline inflation to rise to about 3.7% from 3.4% in August, with core inflation, which strips out food and energy, near 2.4%. 

Futures currently put the odds of a Fed rate hike on October 28 at only about 17% to 20%, but see roughly an 85% chance of at least one hike by December. 

A hotter-than-expected print, especially in core prices, could pull that hike forward and put more pressure on BTC. A softer one would likely leave October off the table and give buyers room to defend current levels.

Bitcoin price: Levels to watch

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