Quick Take

• BTC short-term holders account for the majority of profitable transactions; Fanatics partnered with Crypto.com to launch Fanatics Market; US CFTC approved spot crypto trading on registered exchanges.
• US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of US$88 million last week, compared to a net inflow of $309 million in the five trading days before. Spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $65 million in the same period, compared to a net inflow of $368 million in the five trading days before.
• On the macro side, the US core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in September, 0.1% lower than the Dow Jones consensus. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 29 November were 191,000, lower than the expected 220,000. The latest CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 88% probability of a December rate cut, slightly higher than the 87% the week prior.
• Notable updates: Ethereum activated its Fusaka upgrade on the mainnet; Solana Mobile team is expected to launch SKR token in January; Near is launching Near AI Cloud and Private Chat.
• Notable events in the coming week: Interest rate decisions from Australia, Canada, US, and Switzerland.

Research Dashboard

According to our research dashboard, price index decreased by -2.07% last week. Volume and volatility indices increased by +12.26%, and +162.96%, respectively.  BTC price decreased by -0.3%, recovering briefly to the $93,000-level mid-week, while ETH increased by +2.0%, respectively.

Tokens in the index mostly decreased in price, coinciding with ETF outflows and broader risk-off sentiment, except Chainlink (+4.65%) and ETH (+2.01%). Grayscale listed its Chainlink ETF (GLNK) on NYSE Arca, the first US ETF linked to the token. Ethereum activated its Fusaka upgrade on the mainnet. Volatility increases were led by DOGE (+276.51%) and ETH (+256.51%), the latter coinciding with its Fusaka upgrade.

Additionally, 209 public companies have collectively acquired over 1 million BTC (around US$99 billion), accounting for more than 5% of BTC’s total supply.

Chart of the Week

Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropped to the lowest level since 2024, reaching 1.35 in late November. SOPR measures the proportion of Bitcoin transactions that are in profit versus loss. It’s calculated by dividing the USD value of spent outputs at the time they're spent by their USD value when they were created.The ratio measures the SOPR of long-term holders (LTHs, or wallets holding a certain amount of BTC for more than 155 days) with the SOPR of short-term holders (STHs, or wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days).

A lower ratio means that long-term holders have reduced BTC sales, and short-term holders now account for the majority of profitable transactions. This suggests a potential cool down in selling pressure.

Weekly Performance

Top-cap tokens showed mixed changes in prices last week. BTC decreased by -0.3% while ETH increased by +2.0%. BCH and LINK led the increase, while APT led the drop. Chainlink’s increase coincided with the debut of Grayscale’s Chainlink ETF, which is the first US ETF linked to the token.

All key categories decreased in market capitalisation in the last seven days. NFT and Layer-2 led the decrease.

News Highlights

Crypto.com / Cronos News

• Yorkville Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: MCGA) confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-4 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of its proposed business combination with affiliates of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) and Crypto.com. This combination aims to establish Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, Inc., a digital asset treasury company focused on acquiring Cronos ecosystem’s native token, CRO.
• Fanatics partnered with Crypto.com to launch Fanatics Market, a prediction market platform that allows users to trade contracts across sports, finance, economics, and politics. The product will be offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered exchange.
• Crypto.com Exchange integrated with Cede Hub, a platform for crypto trading competitions designed for active traders. Crypto.com Exchange users can participate in structured trading and holding competitions powered by Cede Hub. 
• Crypto.com Exchange partnered with AI-powered crypto trading assistant Doblox to enable users in approved jurisdictions to trade assets directly through and with insights from Doblox.

Adoption

• Vanguard opened its brokerage platform to crypto ETFs and mutual funds. This will provide the firm’s 50 million clients with access to regulated crypto products.
• French banking group BPCE will roll out crypto trading to its retail clients, including BTC, ETH, SOL,a and USDC through its banking apps. The pilot is expected to reach around 2 million clients. 
• China’s Hua Xia Bank tokenised 4.5 billion yuan (US$600 million) in bonds. The issuance, carrying a three-year term, was auctioned to holders of China’s digital yuan.
• Argentina’s state-owned energy firm Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF) is reportedly evaluating crypto payments for fuel purchases. This came two months after the company started accepting USD for payments.
• Sony Bank, online banking arm of Sony Financial Group, plans to issue a USD-pegged stablecoin in 2026. It expects the stablecoin to be used to pay for games and anime. 

Regulation

• The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved spot crypto trading directly on CFTC-registered exchanges. This followed engagement with the US SEC and the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.
• SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced that an ‘innovation exemption’ for crypto firms is expected to be released in the next month. This will allow an easier path for companies to launch on-chain products.
• UK passed a bill recognising digital assets as property. The law confirms digital assets to have the same legal status as property, enabling clearer treatment for protection, inheritance, and recovery claims.
• UK is evaluating a ban on crypto donations to political parties. Reform UK was the first party to accept crypto donations in the year.
• The European Commission is considering transferring individual countries’ crypto oversight to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). The proposal would centralise supervision and address discrepancies.
• Japan’s government plans to introduce a flat 20% tax on crypto gains starting in 2026. This will replace the current progressive tax structure on traditional securities.
• Italy’s securities regulator set a Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) transition deadline in the country, reminding virtual asset service providers (VASPs) that 30 December is the last day they can operate under the existing framework.

Investment Vehicles

• Grayscale listed its Chainlink ETF on NYSE Arca. GLNK is the first US ETF linked to Chainlink.
• US SEC approved the first leveraged SUI ETF by 21Shares, which commenced trading on Nasdaq. The ETF, TXXS, offers two times exposure to SUI.
• CME Group launched the CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarks which covers crypto including BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. They aim to provide standardised pricing and volatility data for institutional investors. 

Others

• Bank of America suggested that an up to 4% allocation to crypto is modest, for clients that are interested in ‘thematic innovation’ and are comfortable with volatility. 
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) warned that digital currency-related activities, including stablecoins, are illegal financial activities. This came as speculative trading resurfaced.

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