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Executive Summary

Crypto and Equities had mixed performances in October; Fixed Income was down; BTC led the rise.

Canada, China, Eurozone and New Zealand reduced interest rates; Australia and Japan kept interest rates unchanged. US and Eurozone reduced interest rates; Australia, China, Japan and UK kept interest rates unchanged. In the US, the September personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, close to the Fed’s 2% target. In the Eurozone, inflation fell to 1.8% in September, below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in three years. China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.6% (vs 4.7% in Q2), the slowest pace since early 2023, partially driven by a weak property sector.

Key macro events in November include the US presidential election and interest rate decisions from China, New Zealand, US, and UK.

BTC’s performance correlations with Equities dropped in October (vs >~0.5 for all benchmarked equity indices in September) and was weak with Fixed Income

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw total net inflows of $5.4 billion in October; BlackRock’s IBIT recorded its largest daily net inflow of $872 million on 30 October

Market-Neutral Pair Trader hunts for strongly correlated tokens and potential market-neutral pair trades. ADA/DOT (0.83) shows the strongest price correlation, followed by BTC/ETH (0.80) and ARB/OP (0.80).

For the BTC vs. ETH pair, the price ratio (BTC price divided by ETH price) surpassed the 2-standard deviation (SD) ceiling at the end of October.

Our style-factor screens track momentum, value, growth, and risk for the Layer-1 and Layer-2, DeFi, Gaming, and NFT categories. Below is the screen for selected top crypto tokens by market cap in the Layer-1 and Layer-2 category. Price movements of major L1 and L2 tokens were mixed. The top four tokens by market cap outperformed, notably SOL and BTC, while the others mostly declined.

Our events section shows recent and upcoming events for selected tokens, as well as important macroeconomic events.

Read the full Alpha Navigator report: Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [October 2024]

Author

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7 Nov 2024|RESEARCH

Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [October 2024]

Crypto and Equities had mixed performances in October; Fixed Income was down; BTC led the rise. Canada, China, Eurozone and New Zealand reduced interest rates; Australia and Japan kept interest rates unchanged.

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