Bitcoin price scenarios: What could happen if Venezuela’s alleged BTC hoard is proven true

Venezuela and Bitcoin: What’s being claimed

Recent intelligence-linked reporting posits that the Venezuelan state may have been accumulating huge amounts of Bitcoin over several years, with some estimates placing its potential holdings between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC — roughly $56 to $67 billion at current prices. 

If accurate, that would position Venezuela among the largest BTC holders globally, dwarfing many institutional treasuries.

These figures are unverified on-chain and these numbers as speculative intelligence rather than confirmed fact. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and the use of private wallets make definitive attribution of large holdings to any sovereign entity difficult without clear custody records.

Nevertheless, the possibility of a government-sized position has drawn market attention because it affects Bitcoin’s supply structure: a finite asset whose available quantity is a core driver of price.

BTC price action and market context

BTC continues to trade sideways as 2026 unfolds. BTC has climbed back to as high as $94,000 level after dipping in late 2025, as broad risk sentiment and institutional flows ebbed and flowed. 

Markets have been heavily influenced by macroeconomic events — including fresh geopolitical developments — which have kept risk assets in a cautious stance. Equities and commodities have also responded unevenly to recent events.

Price scenarios if the BTC hoard is proven to be true

Bearish outcome: Supply shock downside

If significant amounts of BTC tied to Venezuela are moved to exchanges or liquidated under duress, increased supply could put near-term downward pressure on prices, especially if liquidity remains thin relative to the size of the purported stash.

Neutral outcome: Frozen or locked reserve

The most realistic front-to-middle outcome in the short term may be that these assets remain dormant or legally tied up. Markets would price the risk without seeing actual supply flow to exchanges, keeping BTC range-bound with periodic volatility.

Bullish outcome: Strategic accumulation

In a less obvious possibility, if assets are seized or repurposed into a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve or similar mechanism, those BTC could effectively be removed from circulation. Reduced available supply could, over time, tighten liquidity and underpin higher valuation bands.

Important information: ​​This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to trade cryptocurrencies, consider your risk appetite.  All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.