Is Bitcoin’s post-crash bounce the start of a base? Key price levels to watch in February.

Capitulation to rebound: What changed after ‘Black Sunday’

Bitcoin opened February under heavy pressure after a sharp, cross-asset sell-off over the weekend spilled from commodities into crypto markets. 

While the likes of gold and silver recorded historic falls after new all-time highs, forced liquidations accelerated into what desks described as a capitulation event, with BTC falling to an intraday low near $74,900 on February 2 as sentiment collapsed to extreme fear.

By early February 3, BTC had clawed back to $78,348, up about 4.6% over 24 hours. The broader crypto market also steadied, with total market capitalization near $2.64 trillion, up about 4.2% day-on-day, though still well below the mid-January peak.

Why the bounce appears as a reset more than a rally

Liquidation pressure eased, but demand hasn’t fully returned

The immediate selling pressure appears to have eased after an estimated $4.3 to $4.5 billion in liquidations over February 1 to 2 cleared out crowded leverage. With fewer forced sellers, prices were able to lift off the lows. However, the modest 24-hour recovery has been characterised as temporary stabilization rather than a broad-based relief rally.

Oversold signals and short covering did the heavy lifting

BTC and major tokens like ETH and SOL entered the week with deeply oversold RSI readings in the mid-30s to low-40s — conditions that tend to coincide with technical bounces. Short covering also played a role, particularly from traders positioned for further downside after the breakdown.

No new macro shock

Crucially, the rebound was not sparked by a positive macro catalyst. Instead, the absence of fresh negative headlines — whether on policy, geopolitics or commodities — gave markets the breathing room to stabilize once selling pressure was exhausted.

Bitcoin’s new February price range

Support: $78,000 is pivotal, with $77,000 as the line below

Near-term price action has put $78,000 at the center of the battlefield. A sustained break below $77,000 would increase the odds of a retest of the $74,000 to $75,000 zone, where the capitulation low printed.

Resistance: $82,000 is the first ceiling

On the upside, the market is watching $82,000 as the first meaningful resistance. A push above that area would help confirm that buyers are willing to defend higher lows, but analysts and observers remain cautious about reading too much into early bounces given the recent volatility.

February macro tests ahead

BTC’s rebound has eased the immediate pressure from last weekend’s liquidation. The next question is whether this bounce attracts fresh spot demand, or whether it fades once the mechanical bid from short covering and liquidation exhaustion runs its course.

The technical repairs are likely to be tested quickly, with US nonfarm payrolls due on February 7, followed by key inflation readings that will affect expectations around monetary policy. Developments around the CLARITY Act remain on the radar for digital asset markets, even if legislative progress tends to stagger.

As those events unfold, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $77,000 to $78,000 zone will be watched as a barometer of whether the post-crash bounce is settling into a base

Important information: ​​This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to trade cryptocurrencies, consider your risk appetite.  All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.