Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [June 2025]
Equities and Fixed Income increased in June, while Crypto and Real Assets performances were mixed. Equity indices, including the S&P 500, previously reached an all-time high on 30 June despite evolving geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
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Executive Summary
- Equities and Fixed Income increased in June, while Crypto and Real Assets performances were mixed. Equity indices, including the S&P 500, previously reached an all-time high on 30 June despite evolving geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
- The European Central Bank reduced interest rates; China, Japan, the UK, and the US kept interest rates unchanged.
- Other Macro Remarks: The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expects policymakers to stay on hold until the impact of tariffs becomes clearer. The Fed dot plot indicated that two interest rate reductions of 0.25% each are expected in 2025. Compared to March projections, the 2025 US GDP growth forecast was revised down by 0.3%, from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the core personal consumption expenditures price index was revised up by 0.3%, from 2.8% to 3.1%.
- In June, cryptocurrency prices fluctuated amidst evolving geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Prices rebounded near the end of the month after US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
- Key macro events in July include interest rate decisions from the US, Eurozone, Australia, Canada, China, Japan, and New Zealand.
- BTC’s one-month performance correlation turned positive with all Equities indices and Fixed income bonds, but negative with gold and commodities.
- US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw US$4.6 billion in net inflows in June, signalling the third consecutive month of net inflows. The ETFs exceeded $1 trillion in cumulative trading volume in the month, less than 18 months since launch.
- ARB/OP (0.91) showed the strongest price performance correlation, followed by DOT/ATOM (0.86) and ETH/ARB (0.85).
- For the BTC vs. ETH pair, the price ratio (BTC price divided by ETH price) maintained an estimated +1 standard deviation (SD) in June.
- Our style-factor screens track momentum, value, growth, and risk for the Layer-1 and Layer-2, DeFi, Gaming, and NFT categories. Below is the screen for selected top crypto tokens by market cap in the Layer-1 and Layer-2 category. Most of the L1 and L2 token prices fell except ARB (+10.3%), BTC (+4.2%), and XRP (3.1%).
| Token | 1M Price (%) | Events |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 4.20% | US spot BTC ETFs saw $4.6 billion in net inflows in June. Bitcoin’s long-term holders (>6 months) added a record 800,000 BTC on a rolling 30-day basis in June. Texas became the third US state after New Hampshire and Arizona to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. |
| Ether (ETH) | -0.90% | US spot ETH ETFs recorded $1.165 million in net inflows in June, the second highest monthly net inflow since the ETFs launched. ETH held in strategic reserves reached 1% of circulating supply. |
| USD Coin (USDC) | N/A | Circle is now listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker ‘CRCL’. It upsized the initial public offering to 34 million shares of its Class A common stock at $31 per share. |
| Sky (SKY) | 23.70% | Phase 2 of the MKR-to-SKY upgrade was executed. USDS rewards are now live for SKY staking. Additionally, the GSM (Governance Security Module) Pause Delay was reduced from 48 hours to 24 hours, allowing faster implementation of approved changes. |
| Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) | -12.00% | Polygon Labs announced that the Agglayer v0.3 mainnet is live, which will enable non-CDK chains to join Agglayer, starting with Polygon PoS by the end of Q3. |
| Arbitrum (ARB) | 1.60% | Online brokerage Robinhood revealed its own Layer-2 (L2) blockchain on Arbitrum to power the tokenisation of real-world assets. |
Read the full Alpha Navigator report: Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [June 2025]
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