Alpha Navigator: Quest for Alpha [November 2025]
Real Assets increased in November, while Equities and Fixed Income were mixed and Crypto decreased. BTC's 1-month performance correlation was positive with all Equity indices and with Fixed Income, but mixed across Real Assets.
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Executive Summary
- Real Assets increased in November, while Equities and Fixed Income were mixed and Crypto decreased.
- US, UK and New Zealand reduced interest rates since our last update in early November, while Australia, Canada, China and Eurozone left interest rates unchanged.
- US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the longest US government shutdown in history. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, much higher than the Dow Jones consensus of 50,000. US producer price index (PPI) excluding food and energy rose 0.1% in September, lower than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.2%, potentially indicating cooling inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Japan issued stronger warnings about potential currency intervention and signalled a possible near-term interest rate increase.
- Crypto prices in November were impacted by ETF net outflows and Fed rate cut probabilities.
- Upcoming key macro events include interest rate decisions in the UK, Eurozone, China, and Japan.
- BTC's 1-month performance correlation was positive with all Equity indices and with Fixed Income, but mixed across Real Assets.
- ETH showed a similar pattern, its 1-month performance correlation was positive with all Equity indices and with Fixed Income, but mixed across Real Assets.
- BTC’s rolling 30-day return correlation was positive with Gold and with the S&P 500, but negative with REIT.
- BTC options implied volatility (IV) increased for all durations in mid-November, in line with BTC’s drop below US$85,000, before decreasing towards month-end.
- Aggregated open interest (OI) of BTC futures across exchanges saw a 20% overall decrease in November. CME OI decreased by 18%, while others decreased by 20%.
- US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $3.4 billion in November, the second-highest monthly net outflow since the ETFs launched.
- US spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.4 billion in November, the largest month of net inflows since the ETFs launched.
- ARB/OP showed the strongest price performance correlation at 0.92, followed by DOT/ATOM at 0.91.
- All DeFi pairs showed moderate positive correlations, led by CRV/CVX at 0.82.
- The price ratio (BTC price divided by ETH price) stayed above the -1 standard deviation (SD) level in November.
- Our style-factor screens track momentum, value, growth, and risk for the Layer-1 and Layer-2, DeFi, Gaming, and NFT categories. Below is the screen for selected top crypto tokens by market cap in the Layer-1 and Layer-2 category. L1 and L2 token prices mostly dropped in November except ZK(+29.8%). ADA (-30.8%) led the fall, followed by POL (-27.6%).
- Our events section shows recent and upcoming events for selected tokens, as well as important macroeconomic events.
Token | 1M Price (%) | Events |
Bitcoin (BTC) | -16.10% | US spot BTC ETFs saw $3.4B in net outflows in Nov, the second-highest monthly net outflow since the ETFs launched. |
Ether (ETH) | -21.30% | US spot ETH ETFs recorded $1.4B in net outflows in November. Ethereum Foundation outlined details for Ethereum’s Interop Layer, where wallets work like browsers and users can navigate seamlessly across all Ethereum L2s. Ethereum’s mainnet block gas limit reached 60 million, the highest level in four years. |
Cronos (CRO) | -26.90% | Cronos is running the x402 PayTech Hackathon from November 2025 to January 2026, a global builder initiative that brings together developers, AI engineers, and payments innovators to explore how autonomous systems can interact with real assets on-chain. |
XRP (XRP) | -13.50% | Ripple launched Ripple Prime, a digital asset prime brokerage service for US institutional investors. It also announced a $500 million investment round led by Fortress Investment and Citadel Securities at a $40 billion valuation. Abu Dhabi’s regulator approved the use of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin within the Abu Dhabi Global Market’s (ADGM) financial zone. Grayscale and Franklin Templeton launched US spot XRP ETFs on 24 November. |
Chainlink (LINK) | -24.50% | FTSE Russell and Chainlink partnered to bring its equity and digital asset indices on-chain, including data for Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000 small-cap indexes, FTSE 100 Index, and other benchmarks. |
Uniswap (UNI) | +5.70% | Uniswap introduced the ‘UNIfication’ proposal, which features a protocol-level fee mechanism to burn UNI tokens, a fee discount auction system, and the burning of 100 million UNI tokens from the treasury. Uniswap also introduced Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA), an on-chain token auction mechanism for fair price discovery. |
AAVE (AAVE) | -22.00% | Aave Labs received approval under Europe’s MiCA regulation to offer regulated stablecoin ramps across the EEA. The new service, Push, will provide zero-fee on- and off-ramping for AAVE’s stablecoin GHO and other stablecoins. |
Read the full Alpha Navigator report: Alpha Navigator [November 2025]
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Research & Insights Team
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