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SnapShot 233

Fed Uncertainty Extend Technical Bear Phase; Some Institutions Still Stock Up

Snapshot 233 Cover

Hello SnapShotters,

The technical bear market carries on as bitcoin collapsed below $90,000 — its lowest level since April — before clawing back to the low $90,000s. The flagship crypto reversed all of 2025's gains, down roughly 28% from October's $126,000 peak. Ether fared worse, plunging below the psychologically critical $3,000 level to trade in the low $3,100s, extending its decline to over 35% from recent highs.

More than $1.2 trillion evaporated from the crypto market over six weeks, a deleveraging event driven not by regulatory crackdowns or ecosystem failures, but by a confluence of macro pressures. U.S. Fed rate cut expectations collapsed from 90% to below 50% amid persistent inflation and mounting AI bubble concerns.

Though U.S. President Donald Trump signed the government reopening bill, markets remained subdued amid delayed economic data releases — creating what Bitfinex analysts call an “information vacuum” that has sapped market confidence. The September jobs data that was released on Thursday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000; despite being a positive development for the U.S. employment landscape, it piled on the woes for crypto and stocks as it diminished the prospects of a December rate cut. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October and November data will only be released on December 16, meaning that the Fed will have to “fly blind” with their rate decision once more. 

U.S. spot BTC ETFs hemorrhaged approximately $1.1 billion in net outflows over the past week, marking their third consecutive week of redemptions. ETH ETFs bled roughly $700 million over the same period. Yet, Solana ETFs continue to attract modest inflows.

Beneath the technical breakdowns, the fundamental picture remains resilient. On-chain activity holds steady. Institutional adoption continues; Harvard tripled its BTC ETF position to $443 million, and Strategy keeps accumulating. Regulatory momentum hasn't reversed. The market, overpositioned and underprepared for macro uncertainty, is now in “paying tuition” mode.

Here are the week's top stories as crypto navigates a challenging stretch of the year.



Market Spotlight

Note: Market prices captured in USD at the time of sending. Explore more on Crypto‌.com/Price

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News Snaps

🇭🇰 Hong Kong Begins Tokenized Deposit Pilot

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) kicked off the live pilot of Project Ensemble, moving tokenized deposits from sandbox tests to real-value settlement. The multi-year trial will start with money market fund transactions and interbank treasury flows, as regulators push toward 24/7 tokenized HKD settlement.


🎓 Harvard Deepens Its Bitcoin ETF Holdings

Harvard’s endowment boosted its IBIT position by 257% in Q3, making the spot BTC ETF its largest declared holding, surpassing Microsoft and Amazon. Emory University and Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments also sharply increased BTC ETF exposure.


🔍 Study: ETH Holders Move Tokens More Than BTC Holders

A new Glassnode report shows ETH holders spend and move their coins at roughly three times the rate of long-term BTC holders. BTC continues to behave like a “digital savings asset” while ETH acts as “digital oil”, driven by smart contract utility, gas fees, and staking dynamics.


🛡️Vitalik Unveils Kohaku, Ethereum’s New Privacy Framework

Vitalik Buterin showcased Kohaku, an open-source toolkit aimed at bringing default on-chain privacy to Ethereum wallets through primitives like Railgun and Privacy Pools. The initiative follows recent moves such as Ethereum Foundation’s new 47-member Privacy Cluster and the shift of its Privacy & Scaling team toward solving real-world confidentiality challenges.


🇺🇸 White House Reviews Move to Join Global Crypto Tax Framework

The White House is evaluating an IRS proposal for the U.S. to adopt the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), which would give tax authorities visibility into Americans’ offshore crypto accounts. If approved, the U.S. would join over 70 countries planning to implement CARF by 2028, alongside tougher domestic reporting rules set for 2026.


What’s Ahead

📅 December 3: Ethereum’s Fusaka Around the Corner

Ethereum is less than two weeks away from activating its Fusaka upgrade, introducing scalability features to streamline Layer-2 performance. Testnets have since been cleared and bug bounties are underway. Fusaka is Ethereum’s biggest bundled update since 2022.



Number of the Week

Source: Decrypt



Chart of the Week

Strategy’s NAV Premium Compresses Below 1×

Strategy’s (MSTR) net asset value (NAV) premium fell below 1× for the first time since January 2024, meaning the firm is now trading at a discount to the value of its underlying BTC.

The break below parity coincides with news that Strategy moved 58,915 BTC (about US$5.8 billion) into new wallets, sparking speculation about potential sales before co-founder Michael Saylor denied any intent to sell.

The shift also reflects a broader reset: as crypto markets pulled back in November, Strategy’s previously elevated valuation compressed sharply, bringing its market cap more in line with its underlying BTC holdings. The move marks one of the clearest signs yet that investor sentiment toward “BTC treasury” plays has normalized after a year of aggressive premium expansion.

As of November 16, 2025

Sources: The Block, Blockworks, Crypto.com Research



Research & Insights

Alpha Navigator (October Edition)

This month’s Alpha Navigator highlights a global macro environment in flux: equities and fixed income climbed in October, but crypto lagged as trade tensions, liquidation waves, and cautious Fed guidance weighed on sentiment.

ETF flows remained a key driver. U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled in $3.4 billion for the month — only slightly below September — while ETH ETFs notched seven consecutive months of inflows. Rolling correlations also shifted: BTC strengthened its ties to equities, ETH to real assets, while its relationship with gold weakened.

On-chain and token-specific developments are abound. Ethereum prepared for its December 3 Fusaka upgrade, Ripple advanced its prime brokerage ambitions via Hidden Road, Cronos activated its Smartrun EVM upgrade, and Chainlink partnered with S&P Global to deliver on-chain stablecoin risk assessments. 

Meanwhile, L1 and L2 assets posted broad declines, led by ZK and OP, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions across the sector.

🔎 Read the full Alpha Navigator and glean more insights into cross-asset correlations, volatility trends, ETF flows, and more.



Crypto Trivia

Which Web3 slang word was officially entered into a legal court transcript for the first time?

A) Rugpull

B) HODL

C) FUD

Find the correct answer at the end of this newsletter. 👇



NFT Spotlight

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The drop features works from a global collective of artists on Crypto.com NFT, where each purchase goes directly to providing essentials such as clean water, vaccines, and education to children in need.

Turn your art purchase into meaningful change. Shop the drop today!



Product Updates

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This is informational content only and should not be considered as an investment recommendation. Some Crypto.com products may not be available in some jurisdictions.



Crypto Learn

What Are Bitcoin Layer-2s?

Bitcoin Layer-2s (L2s) are secondary networks built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to make transactions faster, cheaper, and more scalable without changing Bitcoin’s core design.

Bitcoin’s Layer-1 (L1) base layer is secure and decentralized but limited in speed, processing around seven transactions per second. L2 solutions tackle this by moving some activity off-chain while still settling final transactions on the Bitcoin network.

How They Work:

  • Off-Chain Processing: Transactions are handled outside of Bitcoin’s main chain, reducing congestion and costs.
  • Smart Contracts: L2s use cryptographic mechanisms to batch or finalize multiple transactions securely on L1.
  • Settlement Back to Bitcoin: After processing, results are written to the main chain for final confirmation.

L2s expand Bitcoin’s potential, turning the world’s first blockchain into a faster, more versatile financial network.

Learn more in this University article.



CryptoIRL

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Hashtag #CryptoIRL with your Crypto.‌com Card on your social profiles to get featured! Your 15 minutes of fame in the #CROFam awaits you!



Security Tips

New Scam Center Strike Force Targets Crypto Fraud in the U.S.
U.S. regulators launched the first Scam Center Strike Force in the District of Columbia, escalating the fight against industrial-scale crypto fraud operating out of Southeast Asia. These organized groups run “pig butchering” and fraudulent investment platforms, stealing nearly $10 billion a year from victims in the U.S. Scammers routinely lure users to deposit crypto into convincing sites before disappearing with the funds, often relying on trafficked labor.

The Strike Force is already delivering results: over $400 million in crypto recovered, new sanctions imposed on criminal backers, and claims filed against ringleaders and their digital infrastructures. Efforts include freezing wallets, tracing laundered funds, and alerting victims before further losses mount.

On an individual level, robust diligence is vital. Investigate every crypto project, verify wallet addresses, and report suspicious activity to stay ahead of ever-evolving scams.



Crypto Trivia Answer

A) Rugpull ✅

In a 2022 U.S. court filing, the term “rugpull” made its debut in legal precedent to describe fraudulent behavior in a DeFi scam.



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