Executive Summary

• Overall Market Performance: January was defined by a divergence in asset performance, as a ’safe-haven supercycle’ pushed gold and commodities to record highs while many digital assets underwent a re-evaluation. Gold surpassed $5,000 per ounce while silver surged beyond $120; BTC declined -4.8% and ETH fell -9.0%.
• G20 Macro Environment: January was characterised by a ‘wait-and-see’ approach from major central banks. The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Trade Update reported a projected slowdown in trade growth to 2.6% for the year, amid pressures from geopolitical tensions, and trade tariffs.
• Crypto Market Dynamics: DeFi categories were mixed in January. RWA and AI increased, while the DEX category led the market capitalisation (MC) decline. BTC ETFs drew US$1.6 billion in net outflows, ETH ETFs drew $343 million in net outflows, XRP ETFs saw $15 million in net inflows, and SOL ETFs saw $104 million in net inflows.
• Crypto Regulatory Developments: The US Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the crypto market structure bill after a party-line vote. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is joining efforts with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Project Crypto. Hong Kong’s financial regulators intend to submit a draft framework for digital assets in 2026. The European Commission will send notices to 12 EU Member States for failing to implement crypto tax rules.
• Equity Market Trends: US equities maintained a cautious upward trajectory, as investors balanced positive earnings against a ’strategic pause’ from the Federal Reserve (Fed). European markets showed robust momentum, except for France’s CAC 40. Asian equity markets exhibited strong momentum.
• New Developments in Crypto and TradFi: Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) announced plans to distribute digital tokens to shareholders in partnership with Crypto.com. Crypto.com received conditional approval for a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) licence from the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA). The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) plans to launch a blockchain-based platform for 24/7 trading of tokenised stocks and ETFs later this year.
• Outlook on Key Projects and Tokens: Ethereum raised its blob target from 10 to 14 and its blob limit from 15 to 21 in a scheduled Fusaka Blob Parameter Only (BPO) fork. Tether launched the USAT stablecoin. Ripple launched Ripple Treasury to help companies manage their cash and digital assets. Chainlink expanded its Data Streams service to provide 24/5 coverage for US stock and ETF markets.

1.  Overview

January 2026 was defined by a divergence in asset performance, as a ’safe-haven supercycle’ pushed gold and commodities to record highs while many digital assets underwent a re-evaluation. Gold emerged as the standout performer, surging +12.3% to surpass $5,000 per ounce while silver rose beyond $120; BTC declined -4.8% and ETH fell -9.0%.

Markets grappled with a ’wait-and-see’ approach from the Federal Reserve and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Overall market direction continued to be shaped by earnings-led resilience in the US, alongside evolving expectations around geopolitical tensions and economic policy.

1.1 Macro of the G20 Economies

January was characterised by a ’wait-and-see’ approach from major central banks. While 2025 ended with rate cuts and trade surges, January saw policymakers’ concerns around inflation, uncertain trade policies, and geopolitical tensions intensify.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady as expected, citing elevated inflation. President Donald Trump announced that he will nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose 2.6% year-on-year, 0.1% lower than expectations. The Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also held rates steady at 2.25% and 0.75%, respectively.

Trade and External Pressures

The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Trade Update reported a projected slowdown in trade growth to 2.6% for the year, amid pressures from slower growth, geopolitical tensions, and trade tariffs. This deceleration follows a period of ’front-loading’ ahead of tariff increases. US President Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European economies in mid-January, and subsequently stepped back, stating that he has a ‘concept of a deal’ over Greenland.

Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s World Economic Outlook Update slightly raised its global growth projection for 2026 to 3.3%, citing resilience in technology investment and fiscal and monetary support. However, the World Bank warned that downside risks remain in relation to the re-evaluation of AI productivity gains and geopolitical tensions.

1.2 Crypto Market 

DeFi categories were mixed in January. RWA and AI increased, while the DEX category led the market capitalisation (MC) decline.

The RWA increase was led by Ondo Finance (+28%) and Sky (+6%). Ondo Finance is bringing tokenised US stocks and ETFs to Solana. The DEX decrease was led by Uniswap (-27%) and Balancer (-24%). Uniswap’s Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA) was deployed on the Uniswap web app in February.

US spot BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.6 billion in January, higher than the $1.1 billion in December, marking the third consecutive month of outflows.

Meanwhile, spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $343 million in January, lower than the $616 million in December, also marking the third consecutive month of net outflows.

1.3 Crypto Regulatory Updates

1.4 Equity Market

US equities maintained a cautious upward trajectory in January, as investors balanced positive earnings against a ’strategic pause’ from the Federal Reserve. Nasdaq lagged slightly compared to the other two indices, as investors worried whether heavy investments in AI will pay off for mega-cap tech companies.

Key Drivers of the US Stock Market:

• Fed Policy Pause: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% during its January 28 meeting. Markets shifted focus to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair and the potential impact on future Fed policies.
• Macro Updates: US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose 2.6% year-on-year, 0.1% lower than expectations. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%.
• Earnings Resilience: Earnings-led optimism remained a core pillar, with 77% of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q4 2025 earnings beating analyst expectations.
• Sector Rotation: Energy was the best-performing sector in the month (+14.4%), followed by Materials (+8.7%). Eight out of the eleven sectors gained in the S&P 500.

Europe

European markets showed robust momentum overall, except France’s CAC 40 that recorded a slight drop month-on-month.

Primary Market Drivers:

European markets were supported by resilient macroeconomy, including annual inflation of 1.9% in December 2025, down from 2.1% in November, as well as a seasonally adjusted Eurozone GDP growth of 0.3% in Q4 2025, higher than the consensus expectation of 0.2%. In the UK, despite an unexpected December inflation uptick to 3.4%, the FTSE 100 hit record highs as rising precious metal prices benefited the metals and mining companies.

Sector Rotation: Rotation towards hard assets’ and cyclicals like mining and energy, driven largely driven by a rally in precious metals and further supported by geopolitical tensions.

Asia

Asian equity markets exhibited strong momentum in January 2026, characterised by historic breakouts in North Asia while India faced a monthly correction.

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index saw a strong rally in January, reaching four-and-a-half year high earlier in the month. Momentum coincided with a strong IPO market comprising AI and semiconductor firms, as well as reports that China would drop the ’three red lines’ debt caps on the property sector.

Japan

The Nikkei 225 reached a record high above 54,000 in mid-January. Japan’s Lower House was dissolved and election voting will take place on 8 February. Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in the month, but policymakers debated pressures from a weak yen and inflation.

South Korea

The KOSPI surged past the historic 5,000-point milestone for the first time, supported by continuous strength in semiconductor and chip stocks. Semiconductor exports increased by 102.7% year-on-year, driven by global AI demand.

1.5 Performance Correlation

BTC’s rolling 30-day return correlation turned positive with S&P 500 and FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index, and increased with Gold.

2. New Developments

2.1 Crypto.com News

• Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) announced plans to distribute digital tokens to shareholders in partnership with Crypto.com. Trump Media expects that each owner will soon be eligible to receive one of the new digital tokens per whole share of DJT, with other rewards available throughout the year.  
• Crypto.com receives conditional approval for Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license from the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA). This approval makes Crypto.com among the first digital asset firms to receive conditional authorisation to operate as a VASP in the Cayman Islands, and follows Crypto.com previously securing its VASP registration from CIMA in August 2022.
• For prediction markets, Plaee partnered with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) to deliver institutional-grade, CFTC-compliant prediction market technology infrastructure available now in the US. High Roller Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: ROLR) entered into a binding Letter of Intent with CDNA for an exclusive partnership to launch an event-based prediction markets product in the US.
• Crypto.com Exchange expanded its partnership with CryptoStruct to deliver advanced high-frequency trading solutions. It also integrated with Lynq to enable institutional clients of the Crypto.com Exchange to fund their accounts directly through Lynq’s settlement platform. 
• For crypto payments, Crypto.com and Stripe announced product updates to help businesses accept crypto payments more easily. Yuno, a global financial infrastructure platform, partnered with Crypto.com to promote Crypto.com Pay across Yuno’s 1,000+ payment method network. 
• Emirates Coin Investment LLC, the UAE’s first virtual asset trading platform licensed by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Crypto.com to explore new ways for EmCoin users to access and trade digital assets. The partnership will consider integrating Crypto.com’s institutional solutions to enhance liquidity on EmCoin’s platform.
• Crypto.com and Changer.ae, a virtual asset service provider regulated by Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), signed a MoU to expand access to regulated digital asset services in the UAE. This includes integrating Crypto.com’s institutional solutions to simplify and support liquidity for Changer’s cryptocurrency-fiat conversion services.
• Crypto.com signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Kyobo Lifeplanet Life Insurance to accelerate digital asset adoption in Korea. This includes expanding digital‑first financial experiences through referral and point‑exchange programmes.

2.2 TradFi

Assets Allocation

The following assets were used to construct the TradFi portfolio, and returns were compared with adding BTC and ETH:

• NYSE plans for a blockchain-based platform for 24/7 trading of tokenised stocks and ETFs later this year. The system will enable tokenised trading, instant settlement, and stablecoin-based funding.
• UBS is preparing to offer bitcoin and Ethereum trading services to select private banking clients starting in Switzerland, with a potential roll out to Asia Pacific later.
• Morgan Stanley filed with the US SEC to launch a spot BTC ETF, a Solana trust, and an Ethereum trust. The Ethereum trust is expected to distribute staking rewards to investors. The company is also planning to introduce a digital asset wallet in 2026 to support crypto and real-world assets.
  

3. Outlook

3.1 Projects and Tokens

Bitcoin (BTC)

Historically, bitcoin’s average monthly returns in February have been higher than in January, at around +12% since 2013. US Fed policy signals, alongside global macroeconomic and geopolitical updates, remain key indicators to watch during the month.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum raised its blob target from 10 to 14 and its blob limit from 15 to 21 in a scheduled Fusaka Blob Parameter Only (BPO) fork. Ethereum members including Vitalik Buterin are using unclaimed funds from the 2016 DAO hack to establish a $220 million DAO security fund. The Ethereum Foundation formed a post-quantum team and declared it a top strategic priority.

USDT (USDT)

Tether launched the USAT stablecoin, issued by Anchorage Digital, designed specifically for the US market and compliant with the GENIUS Act.

XRP (XRP)

Ripple launched Ripple Treasury to help companies manage their cash and digital assets, allowing cross-border transactions with its RLUSD stablecoin in three to five seconds. Ripple, through its UK subsidiary, obtained UK FCA registration under money laundering regulations. This allows it to conduct certain crypto-related activities in the UK.

Chainlink (LINK)

Chainlink expanded its Data Streams service to provide 24/5 coverage for US stock and ETF markets. This enables decentralised trading platforms to price markets outside regular trading hours.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI)

World Liberty Financial, a DeFi project linked to the Trump family, launched World Liberty Markets, a crypto lending platform centred on its USD1 stablecoin and WLFI governance token, enabling users to borrow and lend digital assets.

Ondo Finance (ONDO)

Ondo Finance is bringing tokenised US stocks and ETFs to Solana, extending its Ondo Global Markets platform beyond existing chains, including Ethereum.

Optimism (OP)

Optimism approved a proposal for the Optimism Foundation to allocate 50% of net Superchain sequencer revenue to OP token buybacks for 12 months. This aims to link the OP token more closely to the Superchain’s economic performance. Optimism also announced OP Enterprise, which aims to provide infrastructure for companies to build native blockchains.

Pendle (PENDLE)

Pendle will replace its governance token vePENDLE, due to long locks and complexity. The new liquid token, sPENDLE, will feature a 14-day withdrawal or instant option with a fee.

3.2 Token Unlock Calendar

Read the full report: Market Update (Jan 2026)

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Authors

Crypto.com Research and Insights team

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