Why the Bitcoin price is stuck in the $60,000s despite the tightest supply in years

A signed interim truce that didn't move the needle

On June 17, US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire, committing to toll-free Strait of Hormuz passage and the phased removal of the US naval blockade within 30 days. 

The de-escalation sent BTC briefly above $65,000, then it stalled. 

As of June 23, BTC slid to the $62,000 level, even though the MOU is signed, the 60-day negotiating clock is running and oil prices plummeting.

The price action exposed a demand problem rather than a geopolitical one: a market in which supply is historically tight but buyers are occupied elsewhere.

Six weeks, $5.94 billion: What the ETF outflow record means

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows in six consecutive weeks, the longest such streak since the products launched in January 2024. 

According to SoSoValue data, the week ending June 18 saw $226.8 million in net redemptions, bringing the six-week cumulative total to $5.94 billion. Galaxy Research's rolling 30-day figure captures $6.35B, the worst reading across all 582 such windows on record.

BTSE COO Jeff Mei offered the most direct explanation: institutional investors are "simply allocating capital toward AI equities, given the SpaceX IPO and the amount of attention the AI sector is attracting at this point." 

CoinEx Chief Analyst Jeff Ko noted that outflows have fallen roughly 87% from their peak of $1.72B in week one to $226 million by week six — the selling wave is exhausting itself rather than accelerating. But exhausted selling is not the same as returning demand.

Michael Saylor acknowledged the dynamic in a post on X: "Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment."

Some analysts have opined that this is not reminiscent of the 2022-style capitulation. Institutional and retail capital are rotating toward the still-hot AI trade rather than fleeing crypto permanently. BTC holding above $60,000 through six consecutive weeks of net ETF selling is itself a data point worth noting.

Where the money went (and why it hasn’t come back)

The AI trade has consistently outperformed BTC. While BTC has shed roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, several AI and semiconductor equities have surged and even overtaken Bitcoin in global market cap rankings.

The five largest US hyperscalers — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle — are on track to spend roughly $725 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, with approximately $450 billion flowing directly into chips, servers, and data centers. 

Nvidia, the primary beneficiary of that build-out, guided to roughly $91 billion in revenue for its current quarter, up approximately 85% year-over-year, with the stock trading near $214 as the expansion accelerates. The SpaceX IPO alone raised $75 billion on June 12. OpenAI and Anthropic have filed confidential S-1s and have yet to list.

For the hedge funds, family offices and asset managers with 12-to-18-month return horizons who drove Bitcoin's ETF inflow era, the comparison is straightforward: AI equities have offered better risk-adjusted returns in 2026. 

Until that performance gap narrows — either through AI valuations softening or BTC recovering narrative momentum — the marginal institutional dollar has somewhere more compelling to be.

Bitcoin price: What lies ahead

Three near-term events may break the $60,000 stalemate. June 26 brings the quarterly options expiry — approximately $8 billion in notional BTC contracts — with more bullish bets than bearish ones. 

The expiry creates a brief window of elevated volatility as traders close or roll their positions; the direction of the move in the 48 to 72 hours after settlement has historically been the more significant signal. 

A day later, June 27 delivers the PCE data print; if core PCE softens, it may hand Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the disinflationary cover to shift tone at the next FOMC. 

As OpenAI and Anthropic inch toward their own listings, the AI equity pipeline that has absorbed institutional capital since SpaceX's debut may eventually clear, narrowing the performance gap that has kept the marginal buyer looking elsewhere.

Important information: This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to take cryptocurrency positions, consider your risk appetite. All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.

Past performance offers context but does not ensure future results. Investment outcomes are subject to market volatility, economic changes, and other unpredictable variables.