Bitcoin's $126K ATH, one year on: Can a golden cross carry BTC past $87K for an Uptober run?

A year ago today on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record $126,080. 

A freefall quickly took place four days later. A tariff shock on October 10 set off more than $19 billion in forced liquidations, the largest single-day wipeout in crypto's history. 

Twelve months on at the time of writing, BTC traded in the mid-$80,000s, about 32% below that peak. It has spent the past two weeks pressing against the same ceiling, the $87,350 high it set in late September.

Two golden crosses, one ceiling

The chart turned more constructive in the later half of September 2026. BTC’s 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day average in early September, a pattern traders call a golden cross. 

A second, slower version followed: the 100-day exponential average has crossed above the 200-day as well. This is harder to fake as it needs prices to stay elevated for months.

Moving averages trail price and traders watch for a golden cross as a strong precursor of a bull run. BTC has produced this crossover 12 times before; while those crosses produced an average three-month gain of 24.9%, only three held up for a full year.

A different market from last October

Last October's peak came with heavy leverage. This time, the steadier money is in spot ETFs. US spot BTC funds took in $2.39 billion in the week to September 25, their largest weekly haul since October 2025 and added another $241 million in the week to October 2. 

That pushed their 2026 inflows to about $1.2 billion, after a $5.8 billion deficit in mid-July. The funds hold about 6.4% of BTC’s market value as of October 2026.

Last week's total was roughly 90% below the week before, a $148.7 million outflow on September 30 broke a nine-session buying streak. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for nearly all of the net buying while Fidelity's FBTC lost $168 million. 

It's also worth remembering that ETF demand was strong last October too; the funds pulled in $2.71 billion the week of the crash. Steady fund buying can cushion a market; on its own, it didn't prevent the last one from breaking.

The Fed, minus the dot plot

The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, roughly a third of what economists expected. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. 

Before the report, traders saw about a 64% chance the Fed would raise rates again on October 28. Afterward, those odds fell to roughly 16% to 22%.

However, the October meeting won't include fresh economic projections, so markets get a statement and a press conference rather than an updated map of where officials see rates heading. 

Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation-adjusted Treasury yield stood at 2.88% on October 1, near its highest level since 2008. When safe government bonds pay close to 3% above inflation, holding an asset that pays nothing carries a real cost. 

Two significant dates come before the Fed: minutes from the September meeting on October 7 and September inflation data on October 14.

Bitcoin price: Levels to watch

On the OG.com prediction market platform, traders priced a higher-than-$86,000 level at 35% and above $89,000 at 18%, by October 10. October closed higher in 10 of the last 13 years but last year was one of the three that didn't.

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